Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga MX U21 / UNAM Pumas U21 vs Cruz Azul U21

UNAM Pumas U21 vs Cruz Azul U21 Statistics & Analysis

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UNAM Pumas U21
Oct 11, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 78%
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Cruz Azul U21
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 UNAM Pumas U21 UNAM Pumas U21 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13224797

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result UNAM Pumas U21 win · UNAM Pumas U21 2–1 Cruz Azul U21
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga MX U21
  • Fixture: UNAM Pumas U21 vs Cruz Azul U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-11 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): UNAM Pumas U21 1.35 — Cruz Azul U21 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX U21 Liga MX U21 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Toluca U21 11 10 1 0 31
2 Club Leon U21 11 10 0 1 30
3 Guadalajara Chivas U21 11 7 0 4 21
4 Club Tijuana U21 11 6 1 4 19
5 Club America U21 11 6 0 5 18
6 Atl. San Luis U21 11 6 0 5 18
7 Necaxa U21 11 6 0 5 18
8 Cruz Azul U21 11 5 1 5 16
9 Puebla U21 11 5 1 5 16
10 Juarez U21 11 5 1 5 16
11 Atlante U21 11 5 0 6 15
12 Monterrey U21 10 4 1 5 13
13 UNAM Pumas U21 11 4 1 6 13
14 Santos Laguna U21 11 4 1 6 13
15 Atlas U21 11 3 1 7 10
16 Pachuca U21 11 3 0 8 9
17 Tigres UANL U21 11 2 1 8 7
18 Queretaro U21 10 2 0 8 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Toluca U21 11 21 8 +13 31
2 Club Leon U21 11 21 10 +11 30
3 Atl. San Luis U21 11 20 21 -1 18
4 Cruz Azul U21 11 19 17 +2 16
5 Guadalajara Chivas U21 11 18 14 +4 21
6 Monterrey U21 10 18 16 +2 13
7 Club Tijuana U21 11 17 13 +4 19
8 Club America U21 11 17 14 +3 18
9 Atlante U21 11 17 22 -5 15
10 Atlas U21 11 13 14 -1 10
11 Puebla U21 11 12 10 +2 16
12 UNAM Pumas U21 11 12 14 -2 13
13 Necaxa U21 11 12 15 -3 18
14 Queretaro U21 10 12 19 -7 6
15 Santos Laguna U21 11 11 15 -4 13
16 Juarez U21 11 10 11 -1 16
17 Pachuca U21 11 10 16 -6 9
18 Tigres UANL U21 11 10 21 -11 7
Liga MX U21 Mexico. Liga MX U21 Predictions