Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga MX U21 / Guadalajara Chivas U21 vs Juarez U21

Guadalajara Chivas U21 vs Juarez U21 Statistics & Analysis

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Guadalajara Chivas U21
Oct 02, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.34
0 1.26
xG Accuracy: 64%
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Juarez U21
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Guadalajara Chivas U21 Guadalajara Chivas U21 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456340

Closing Odds 4.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Guadalajara Chivas U21 win · Guadalajara Chivas U21 1–0 Juarez U21
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Juarez U21 (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Juarez U21 (1X2) by about 12.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Guadalajara Chivas U21 (1X2) 37.0 47.3 -10.2
Draw (1X2) 29.6 31.9 -2.4
Juarez U21 (1X2) 33.4 20.8 +12.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 44.4 +3.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 55.6 -3.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.4% on Juarez U21 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.8%. The difference — about 12.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Guadalajara Chivas U21 (1X2) 1.9 1.9 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.81 2.81 0.0
Juarez U21 (1X2) 4.32 4.32 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.09 2.09 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.67 1.67 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga MX U21
  • Fixture: Guadalajara Chivas U21 vs Juarez U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-02 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Guadalajara Chivas U21 1.34 — Juarez U21 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 45.2% · Probability edge: +3.0 pts · Est. EV: +2.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX U21 Liga MX U21 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Toluca U21 10 9 1 0 28
2 Club Leon U21 10 9 0 1 27
3 Club Tijuana U21 10 6 1 3 19
4 Guadalajara Chivas U21 10 6 0 4 18
5 Cruz Azul U21 10 5 1 4 16
6 Puebla U21 10 5 1 4 16
7 Club America U21 10 5 0 5 15
8 Atl. San Luis U21 10 5 0 5 15
9 Necaxa U21 10 5 0 5 15
10 Monterrey U21 9 4 1 4 13
11 Juarez U21 10 4 1 5 13
12 Santos Laguna U21 10 4 1 5 13
13 Atlante U21 10 4 0 6 12
14 Atlas U21 10 3 1 6 10
15 UNAM Pumas U21 10 3 1 6 10
16 Pachuca U21 10 3 0 7 9
17 Tigres UANL U21 10 2 1 7 7
18 Queretaro U21 9 2 0 7 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Toluca U21 10 19 7 +12 28
2 Club Leon U21 10 19 9 +10 27
3 Monterrey U21 9 18 13 +5 13
4 Cruz Azul U21 10 18 15 +3 16
5 Club Tijuana U21 10 17 12 +5 19
6 Atl. San Luis U21 10 17 19 -2 15
7 Guadalajara Chivas U21 10 16 14 +2 18
8 Club America U21 10 14 14 0 15
9 Atlante U21 10 14 20 -6 12
10 Atlas U21 10 13 12 +1 10
11 Puebla U21 10 11 8 +3 16
12 Necaxa U21 10 11 15 -4 15
13 UNAM Pumas U21 10 10 13 -3 10
14 Pachuca U21 10 10 15 -5 9
15 Queretaro U21 9 10 16 -6 6
16 Juarez U21 10 9 11 -2 13
17 Santos Laguna U21 10 9 12 -3 13
18 Tigres UANL U21 10 9 19 -10 7
Liga MX U21 Mexico. Liga MX U21 Predictions