Statistics / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Niederrhein / SSVg Velbert vs SC St. Tönis

SSVg Velbert vs SC St. Tönis Statistics & Analysis

SSVg Velbert SSVg Velbert
Oct 11, 2026 - 13:00
3 1.45
2 1.15
xG Accuracy: 52%
SC St. Tönis SC St. Tönis
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SSVg Velbert SSVg Velbert ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12700309

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SSVg Velbert win · SSVg Velbert 3–2 SC St. Tönis
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Oberliga - Niederrhein
  • Fixture: SSVg Velbert vs SC St. Tönis
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): SSVg Velbert 1.45 — SC St. Tönis 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 26.7% · Probability edge: +25.2 pts · Est. EV: +78.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Niederrhein Oberliga - Niederrhein — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Schonnebeck 8 7 1 0 22
2 SSVg Velbert 8 6 0 2 18
3 Fortuna Düsseldorf II 9 5 2 2 17
4 Solingen-Wald 9 5 0 4 15
5 SC St. Tönis 8 4 2 2 14
6 Germania Ratingen 9 3 5 1 14
7 SF Baumberg 8 4 2 2 14
8 KFC Uerdingen 05 9 4 1 4 13
9 Sonsbeck 8 3 4 1 13
10 Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. 8 4 1 3 13
11 BW Dingden 8 4 1 3 13
12 Monheim 8 2 3 3 9
13 Scherpenberg 8 2 2 4 8
14 Wuppertaler SV 8 2 1 5 7
15 SW Essen 9 1 3 5 6
16 Büderich 9 1 3 5 6
17 Holzheimer SG 8 1 1 6 4
18 Meerbusch 8 0 2 6 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Schonnebeck 8 31 10 +21 22
2 SSVg Velbert 8 22 13 +9 18
3 KFC Uerdingen 05 9 21 12 +9 13
4 Fortuna Düsseldorf II 9 20 10 +10 17
5 Solingen-Wald 9 19 22 -3 15
6 SF Baumberg 8 18 16 +2 14
7 Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. 8 18 18 0 13
8 SC St. Tönis 8 17 12 +5 14
9 Germania Ratingen 9 17 14 +3 14
10 Monheim 8 15 13 +2 9
11 Sonsbeck 8 14 10 +4 13
12 Büderich 9 12 26 -14 6
13 Wuppertaler SV 8 11 10 +1 7
14 Scherpenberg 8 11 18 -7 8
15 SW Essen 9 11 21 -10 6
16 BW Dingden 8 10 11 -1 13
17 Holzheimer SG 8 10 28 -18 4
18 Meerbusch 8 5 18 -13 2
Oberliga - Niederrhein Germany. Oberliga - Niederrhein Predictions