SpVgg Herne Horsthausen vs TuS Hordel Statistics & Analysis

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SpVgg Herne Horsthausen

Oct 11, 2026 - 13:15

1 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 64%

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TuS Hordel

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 SpVgg Herne Horsthausen SpVgg Herne Horsthausen ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13216397

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result SpVgg Herne Horsthausen win · SpVgg Herne Horsthausen 1–0 TuS Hordel

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Oberliga - Westfalen
Fixture: SpVgg Herne Horsthausen vs TuS Hordel
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 13:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): SpVgg Herne Horsthausen 1.32 — TuS Hordel 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Westfalen — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Gievenbeck	10	7	1	2	22
2	Vreden	9	6	1	2	19
3	Eintracht Rheine	9	6	0	3	18
4	Erkenschwick	9	5	3	1	18
5	Maaslingen	9	5	1	3	16
6	Lippstadt 08	9	5	1	3	16
7	Sprockhovel	9	4	2	3	14
8	Verl II	9	4	2	3	14
9	ASC Dortmund	9	4	1	4	13
10	Arminia II	9	3	3	3	12
11	Preußen Münster II	9	3	3	3	12
12	Westfalia Kinderhaus	9	3	3	3	12
13	TuS Hordel	9	2	4	3	10
14	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	9	3	0	6	9
15	Victoria Clarholz	9	2	2	5	8
16	Hiltrup	9	2	1	6	7
17	Ennepetal	9	0	5	4	5
18	Schermbeck	8	0	1	7	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sprockhovel	9	25	17	+8	14
2	Vreden	9	25	19	+6	19
3	ASC Dortmund	9	23	19	+4	13
4	Gievenbeck	10	21	13	+8	22
5	Victoria Clarholz	9	21	22	-1	8
6	Eintracht Rheine	9	20	13	+7	18
7	Verl II	9	19	16	+3	14
8	Maaslingen	9	18	14	+4	16
9	Lippstadt 08	9	17	15	+2	16
10	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	9	17	23	-6	9
11	Erkenschwick	9	15	9	+6	18
12	Arminia II	9	14	12	+2	12
13	Preußen Münster II	9	14	12	+2	12
14	TuS Hordel	9	14	17	-3	10
15	Westfalia Kinderhaus	9	11	13	-2	12
16	Ennepetal	9	10	23	-13	5
17	Hiltrup	9	8	20	-12	7
18	Schermbeck	8	7	22	-15	1