Statistics / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Westfalen / TuS Hordel vs Vreden

TuS Hordel vs Vreden Statistics & Analysis

⚽
TuS Hordel
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:30
1 1.38
4 1.22
xG Accuracy: 42%
Vreden Vreden
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 TuS Hordel Vreden ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11675607

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Vreden win · TuS Hordel 1–4 Vreden
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Oberliga - Westfalen
  • Fixture: TuS Hordel vs Vreden
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): TuS Hordel 1.38 — Vreden 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Westfalen Oberliga - Westfalen — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maaslingen 8 5 1 2 16
2 Gievenbeck 8 5 1 2 16
3 Vreden 8 5 1 2 16
4 Lippstadt 08 9 5 1 3 16
5 Eintracht Rheine 8 5 0 3 15
6 Erkenschwick 8 4 3 1 15
7 Verl II 8 4 2 2 14
8 Preußen Münster II 9 3 3 3 12
9 Sprockhovel 8 3 2 3 11
10 Arminia II 8 3 2 3 11
11 Westfalia Kinderhaus 8 3 2 3 11
12 ASC Dortmund 7 3 1 3 10
13 TuS Hordel 8 2 4 2 10
14 SpVgg Herne Horsthausen 9 3 0 6 9
15 Victoria Clarholz 9 2 2 5 8
16 Hiltrup 8 2 1 5 7
17 Ennepetal 8 0 5 3 5
18 Schermbeck 7 0 1 6 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sprockhovel 8 22 16 +6 11
2 Vreden 8 21 18 +3 16
3 Victoria Clarholz 9 21 22 -1 8
4 Verl II 8 18 12 +6 14
5 Eintracht Rheine 8 17 11 +6 15
6 Lippstadt 08 9 17 15 +2 16
7 ASC Dortmund 7 17 16 +1 10
8 SpVgg Herne Horsthausen 9 17 23 -6 9
9 Maaslingen 8 16 11 +5 16
10 Gievenbeck 8 16 12 +4 16
11 Preußen Münster II 9 14 12 +2 12
12 Arminia II 8 13 11 +2 11
13 TuS Hordel 8 13 13 0 10
14 Erkenschwick 8 11 8 +3 15
15 Westfalia Kinderhaus 8 10 12 -2 11
16 Ennepetal 8 9 18 -9 5
17 Hiltrup 8 8 17 -9 7
18 Schermbeck 7 6 19 -13 1
Oberliga - Westfalen Germany. Oberliga - Westfalen Predictions