Statistics / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Westfalen / Erkenschwick vs Verl II

Erkenschwick vs Verl II Statistics & Analysis

Erkenschwick Erkenschwick
Oct 04, 2026 - 13:00
4 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 45%
Verl II Verl II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Erkenschwick Erkenschwick ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11667795

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Erkenschwick win · Erkenschwick 4–1 Verl II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Oberliga - Westfalen
  • Fixture: Erkenschwick vs Verl II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Erkenschwick 1.35 — Verl II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Oberliga - Westfalen Oberliga - Westfalen — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gievenbeck 10 7 1 2 22
2 Vreden 9 6 1 2 19
3 Eintracht Rheine 9 6 0 3 18
4 Erkenschwick 9 5 3 1 18
5 Maaslingen 9 5 1 3 16
6 Lippstadt 08 9 5 1 3 16
7 Sprockhovel 9 4 2 3 14
8 Verl II 9 4 2 3 14
9 ASC Dortmund 9 4 1 4 13
10 Arminia II 9 3 3 3 12
11 Preußen Münster II 9 3 3 3 12
12 Westfalia Kinderhaus 9 3 3 3 12
13 TuS Hordel 9 2 4 3 10
14 SpVgg Herne Horsthausen 9 3 0 6 9
15 Victoria Clarholz 9 2 2 5 8
16 Hiltrup 9 2 1 6 7
17 Ennepetal 9 0 5 4 5
18 Schermbeck 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sprockhovel 9 25 17 +8 14
2 Vreden 9 25 19 +6 19
3 ASC Dortmund 9 23 19 +4 13
4 Gievenbeck 10 21 13 +8 22
5 Victoria Clarholz 9 21 22 -1 8
6 Eintracht Rheine 9 20 13 +7 18
7 Verl II 9 19 16 +3 14
8 Maaslingen 9 18 14 +4 16
9 Lippstadt 08 9 17 15 +2 16
10 SpVgg Herne Horsthausen 9 17 23 -6 9
11 Erkenschwick 9 15 9 +6 18
12 Arminia II 9 14 12 +2 12
13 Preußen Münster II 9 14 12 +2 12
14 TuS Hordel 9 14 17 -3 10
15 Westfalia Kinderhaus 9 11 13 -2 12
16 Ennepetal 9 10 23 -13 5
17 Hiltrup 9 8 20 -12 7
18 Schermbeck 8 7 22 -15 1
Oberliga - Westfalen Germany. Oberliga - Westfalen Predictions