Statistics / Football / Portugal. Júniores U19 / Rio Ave U19 vs Vitoria Guimaraes U19

Rio Ave U19 vs Vitoria Guimaraes U19 Statistics & Analysis

Rio Ave U19 Rio Ave U19
Sep 12, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.33
0 1.27
xG Accuracy: 59%
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 Vitoria Guimaraes U19
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rio Ave U19 Rio Ave U19 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7447559

Closing Odds 2.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Rio Ave U19 win · Rio Ave U19 2–0 Vitoria Guimaraes U19
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Rio Ave U19 (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Rio Ave U19 (1X2) by about 2.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Rio Ave U19 (1X2) 36.6 34.2 +2.4
Draw (1X2) 29.6 29.6 0.0
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 (1X2) 33.8 36.1 -2.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 49.1 -0.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 50.9 +0.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.6% on Rio Ave U19 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 34.2%. The difference — about 2.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Rio Ave U19 (1X2) 2.6 2.6 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.0 3.0 0.0
Vitoria Guimaraes U19 (1X2) 2.46 2.46 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.89 1.89 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.82 1.82 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Júniores U19
  • Fixture: Rio Ave U19 vs Vitoria Guimaraes U19
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Rio Ave U19 1.33 — Vitoria Guimaraes U19 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 49.8% · Probability edge: +2.0 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Júniores U19 Júniores U19 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Porto U19 5 4 0 1 12
1 Benfica U19 5 4 1 0 13
2 Gil Vicente U19 5 3 1 1 10
2 Sporting CP U19 4 3 1 0 10
3 Vitoria Guimaraes U19 5 3 1 1 10
3 Oriental U19 5 2 2 1 8
4 Feirense U19 5 3 0 2 9
4 Mafra U19 5 2 1 2 7
5 Sporting Braga U19 5 2 1 2 7
5 Santa Clara U19 3 2 0 1 6
6 Rio Ave U19 5 2 1 2 7
6 Torreense U19 5 1 1 3 4
7 Moreirense U19 5 2 0 3 6
7 SC Farense U19 4 1 1 2 4
8 Academico Viseu U19 5 1 1 3 4
8 Casa Pia U19 5 1 1 3 4
9 Famalicão U19 5 1 1 3 4
9 União Leiria U19 5 0 3 2 3
10 Vizela U19 5 1 0 4 3
10 Alverca U19 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Benfica U19 5 15 4 +11 13
2 Porto U19 5 13 4 +9 12
3 Santa Clara U19 3 9 3 +6 6
4 Sporting CP U19 4 7 3 +4 10
5 Moreirense U19 5 6 8 -2 6
6 Torreense U19 5 6 8 -2 4
7 Vitoria Guimaraes U19 5 5 4 +1 10
8 Oriental U19 5 5 4 +1 8
9 Sporting Braga U19 5 5 4 +1 7
10 Rio Ave U19 5 5 4 +1 7
11 Alverca U19 3 5 7 -2 1
12 SC Farense U19 4 5 9 -4 4
13 Vizela U19 5 5 10 -5 3
14 Mafra U19 5 5 11 -6 7
15 Gil Vicente U19 5 4 1 +3 10
16 Feirense U19 5 4 4 0 9
17 Casa Pia U19 5 4 6 -2 4
18 Famalicão U19 5 4 9 -5 4
19 União Leiria U19 5 4 10 -6 3
20 Academico Viseu U19 5 2 5 -3 4
Júniores U19 Portugal. Júniores U19 Predictions