Statistics / Football / World. UEFA Champions League / KI Klaksvik vs Kauno Žalgiris

KI Klaksvik vs Kauno Žalgiris Statistics & Analysis

KI Klaksvik KI Klaksvik
Jul 21, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 49%
Kauno Žalgiris Kauno Žalgiris
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 KI Klaksvik Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 08:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3164638

Closing Odds 2.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · KI Klaksvik 0–0 Kauno Žalgiris
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.66 percentage points on Draw (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Kauno Žalgiris (1X2) by about 6.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
KI Klaksvik (1X2) 36.1 42.4 -6.3
Draw (1X2) 29.7 29.3 +0.4
Kauno Žalgiris (1X2) 34.2 28.3 +6.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 44.3 +3.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 55.7 -3.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Kauno Žalgiris (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 28.3%. The difference — about 6.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
KI Klaksvik (1X2) 2.1 2.2 -0.6
Draw (1X2) 3.16 3.19 +0.7
Kauno Žalgiris (1X2) 3.19 3.3 -0.1
Over 2.5 goals 2.12 2.14 +0.5
Under 2.5 goals 1.65 1.7 -0.5

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: UEFA Champions League
  • Fixture: KI Klaksvik vs Kauno Žalgiris
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-21 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): KI Klaksvik 1.32 — Kauno Žalgiris 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 48.7% · Probability edge: +5.8 pts · Est. EV: +14.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Champions League UEFA Champions League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Paris Saint Germain 1 1 0 0 3
2 Bayern München 1 1 0 0 3
3 Barcelona 1 1 0 0 3
4 Manchester United 1 1 0 0 3
5 Como 1 1 0 0 3
6 VfB Stuttgart 1 1 0 0 3
7 Sporting CP 1 1 0 0 3
8 Manchester City 1 1 0 0 3
9 Aston Villa 1 1 0 0 3
10 Lens 1 1 0 0 3
11 Real Betis 1 1 0 0 3
12 Borussia Dortmund 1 1 0 0 3
13 Liverpool 1 1 0 0 3
14 Real Madrid 1 1 0 0 3
15 Arsenal 1 1 0 0 3
16 AEK Athens FC 1 1 0 0 3
17 AS Roma 1 0 1 0 1
18 Shakhtar Donetsk 1 0 1 0 1
19 PSV Eindhoven 1 0 1 0 1
20 Fenerbahce 1 0 1 0 1
21 Villarreal 1 0 0 1 0
22 Lille 1 0 0 1 0
23 Slavia Praha 1 0 0 1 0
24 Club Brugge KV 1 0 0 1 0
25 Inter 1 0 0 1 0
26 Atletico Madrid 1 0 0 1 0
27 Napoli 1 0 0 1 0
28 Lask Linz 1 0 0 1 0
29 Viking 1 0 0 1 0
30 Galatasaray 1 0 0 1 0
31 FC Porto 1 0 0 1 0
32 RB Leipzig 1 0 0 1 0
33 Feyenoord 1 0 0 1 0
34 Sabah FA 1 0 0 1 0
35 Slovan Bratislava 1 0 0 1 0
36 Bodo/Glimt 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Paris Saint Germain 1 6 1 +5 3
2 Bayern München 1 5 0 +5 3
3 Barcelona 1 5 1 +4 3
4 Manchester United 1 4 0 +4 3
5 Como 1 4 1 +3 3
6 VfB Stuttgart 1 3 1 +2 3
7 Sporting CP 1 3 1 +2 3
8 Aston Villa 1 3 2 +1 3
9 Lens 1 3 2 +1 3
10 Real Betis 1 3 2 +1 3
11 Borussia Dortmund 1 3 2 +1 3
12 Manchester City 1 2 0 +2 3
13 Liverpool 1 2 1 +1 3
14 Real Madrid 1 2 1 +1 3
15 Villarreal 1 2 3 -1 0
16 Lille 1 2 3 -1 0
17 Slavia Praha 1 2 3 -1 0
18 Club Brugge KV 1 2 3 -1 0
19 Arsenal 1 1 0 +1 3
20 AEK Athens FC 1 1 0 +1 3
21 AS Roma 1 1 1 0 1
22 Shakhtar Donetsk 1 1 1 0 1
23 PSV Eindhoven 1 1 1 0 1
24 Fenerbahce 1 1 1 0 1
25 Inter 1 1 2 -1 0
26 Atletico Madrid 1 1 2 -1 0
27 Viking 1 1 3 -2 0
28 Galatasaray 1 1 3 -2 0
29 RB Leipzig 1 1 4 -3 0
30 Feyenoord 1 1 5 -4 0
31 Slovan Bratislava 1 1 6 -5 0
32 Napoli 1 0 1 -1 0
33 Lask Linz 1 0 1 -1 0
34 FC Porto 1 0 2 -2 0
35 Sabah FA 1 0 4 -4 0
36 Bodo/Glimt 1 0 5 -5 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Manchester City 1 2.3 0.3 +2.0 3
2 Aston Villa 1 3.2 1.5 +1.7 3
3 Borussia Dortmund 1 2.8 1.3 +1.5 3
4 Real Madrid 1 2.9 1.8 +1.1 3
5 Real Betis 1 1.8 0.8 +1.0 3
6 AEK Athens FC 1 1.7 0.7 +1.0 3
7 Liverpool 1 1.6 0.9 +0.7 3
8 Sporting CP 1 1.8 1.2 +0.6 3
9 Galatasaray 1 1.2 1.8 -0.6 0
10 Atletico Madrid 1 0.9 1.6 -0.7 0
11 Lille 1 0.8 1.8 -1.0 0
12 Lask Linz 1 0.7 1.7 -1.0 0
13 Inter 1 1.8 2.9 -1.1 0
14 Villarreal 1 1.3 2.8 -1.5 0
15 Club Brugge KV 1 1.5 3.2 -1.7 0
16 FC Porto 1 0.3 2.3 -2.0 0
17 Paris Saint Germain 1 — — — 3
18 Bayern München 1 — — — 3
19 Barcelona 1 — — — 3
20 Manchester United 1 — — — 3
21 Como 1 — — — 3
22 VfB Stuttgart 1 — — — 3
23 Lens 1 — — — 3
24 Arsenal 1 — — — 3
25 AS Roma 1 — — — 1
26 Shakhtar Donetsk 1 — — — 1
27 PSV Eindhoven 1 — — — 1
28 Fenerbahce 1 — — — 1
29 Slavia Praha 1 — — — 0
30 Napoli 1 — — — 0
31 Viking 1 — — — 0
32 RB Leipzig 1 — — — 0
33 Feyenoord 1 — — — 0
34 Sabah FA 1 — — — 0
35 Slovan Bratislava 1 — — — 0
36 Bodo/Glimt 1 — — — 0