Aliağa FAŞ vs Menemen Belediyespor Statistics & Analysis

Aliağa FAŞ

Oct 10, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.40

0 1.20

xG Accuracy: 64%

Menemen Belediyespor

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Aliağa FAŞ Aliağa FAŞ ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13244284

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Aliağa FAŞ win · Aliağa FAŞ 1–0 Menemen Belediyespor

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 2. Lig
Fixture: Aliağa FAŞ vs Menemen Belediyespor
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
xG (showing): Aliağa FAŞ 1.4 — Menemen Belediyespor 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

2. Lig — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Muş Menderesspor	5	4	1	0	13
2	Aliağa FAŞ	5	4	0	1	12
3	Elazığspor	5	3	1	1	10
4	Çorluspor 1947	5	3	1	1	10
5	Belediye Derincespor	5	2	3	0	9
6	Menemen Belediyespor	5	3	0	2	9
7	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	5	2	1	2	7
8	Erbaaspor	5	2	1	2	7
9	Somaspor	4	2	1	1	7
10	Isparta 32 Spor	5	2	1	2	7
11	Şanlıurfaspor	5	1	3	1	6
12	Ankaraspor	5	2	0	3	6
13	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	5	1	2	2	5
14	Kastamonuspor 1966	5	2	0	3	3
15	Sebat Gençlikspor	4	0	1	3	1
16	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	5	0	0	5	0
17	Hatayspor	5	1	1	3
18	Adana Demirspor	5	1	1	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Muş Menderesspor	5	15	7	+8	13
2	Erbaaspor	5	13	12	+1	7
3	Elazığspor	5	12	4	+8	10
4	Aliağa FAŞ	5	12	9	+3	12
5	Çorluspor 1947	5	11	5	+6	10
6	İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik	5	9	7	+2	7
7	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	5	9	8	+1	5
8	Somaspor	4	8	7	+1	7
9	Isparta 32 Spor	5	8	8	0	7
10	Belediye Derincespor	5	7	4	+3	9
11	Menemen Belediyespor	5	7	7	0	9
12	Şanlıurfaspor	5	7	7	0	6
13	Sebat Gençlikspor	4	6	10	-4	1
14	Kastamonuspor 1966	5	4	13	-9	3
15	Ankaraspor	5	3	6	-3	6
16	Adana Demirspor	5	3	9	-6
17	Hatayspor	5	2	4	-2
18	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	5	2	11	-9	0