Nilüfer Belediye vs Bursa Yıldırımspor Statistics & Analysis

Nilüfer Belediye

Sep 27, 2026 - 13:00

0 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 49%

Bursa Yıldırımspor

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Nilüfer Belediye Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10090706

Closing Odds 2.25

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Nilüfer Belediye 0–0 Bursa Yıldırımspor

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Nilüfer Belediye (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Nilüfer Belediye (1X2) by about 3.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Nilüfer Belediye (1X2)	36.1	32.6	+3.5
Draw (1X2)	29.7	27.6	+2.1
Bursa Yıldırımspor (1X2)	34.2	39.8	-5.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	48.7	-0.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	51.3	+0.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Nilüfer Belediye (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 32.6%. The difference — about 3.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE10)
Nilüfer Belediye (1X2)	2.75	2.75
Draw (1X2)	3.25	3.25
Bursa Yıldırımspor (1X2)	2.25	2.25
Over 2.5 goals	1.95	1.95
Under 2.5 goals	1.85	1.85

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: 3. Lig - Group 2
Fixture: Nilüfer Belediye vs Bursa Yıldırımspor
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Nilüfer Belediye 1.32 — Bursa Yıldırımspor 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Lig - Group 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Balıkesirspor	3	3	0	0	9
2	Nilüfer Belediye	3	3	0	0	9
3	Etimesgut Belediyespor	4	3	0	1	9
4	Ayvalıkgücü Belediyespor	4	3	0	1	9
5	Anadolu Üniversitesi	3	2	1	0	7
6	Bursa Yıldırımspor	3	2	1	0	7
7	Gaziemirspor	4	2	0	2	6
8	Bigaspor	4	1	2	1	5
9	Eskişehirspor	3	1	1	1	4
10	Efeler 09 Spor	3	1	1	1	4
11	Akşehirspor	3	1	0	2	3
12	Buca FK	3	1	0	2	3
13	Altay	3	0	2	1	2
14	Karşıyaka	4	0	2	2	2
15	Utaş Uşakspor	3	0	2	1	2
16	Kepez Belediyespor	3	0	1	2	1
17	Denizli İYG	3	0	1	2	1
18	Kestelspor	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Balıkesirspor	3	11	2	+9	9
2	Ayvalıkgücü Belediyespor	4	9	5	+4	9
3	Nilüfer Belediye	3	7	1	+6	9
4	Anadolu Üniversitesi	3	7	2	+5	7
5	Bigaspor	4	7	5	+2	5
6	Etimesgut Belediyespor	4	6	1	+5	9
7	Gaziemirspor	4	6	5	+1	6
8	Eskişehirspor	3	6	5	+1	4
9	Bursa Yıldırımspor	3	5	2	+3	7
10	Akşehirspor	3	4	7	-3	3
11	Utaş Uşakspor	3	4	7	-3	2
12	Efeler 09 Spor	3	3	2	+1	4
13	Altay	3	3	4	-1	2
14	Karşıyaka	4	3	5	-2	2
15	Buca FK	3	3	7	-4	3
16	Kepez Belediyespor	3	2	7	-5	1
17	Denizli İYG	3	1	8	-7	1
18	Kestelspor	4	1	13	-12	0