Statistics / Football / Turkey. 3. Lig - Group 2 / Buca FK vs Altay

Buca FK vs Altay Statistics & Analysis

Buca FK Buca FK
Sep 27, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Altay Altay
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Buca FK Altay ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10105072

Closing Odds 2.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Altay win · Buca FK 1–2 Altay
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Buca FK (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 5.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Buca FK (1X2) 36.1 31.3 +4.8
Draw (1X2) 29.7 27.7 +1.9
Altay (1X2) 34.2 41.0 -6.7
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.0 -5.8
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 46.0 +5.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 46.0%. The difference — about 5.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Buca FK (1X2) 2.88 2.88 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.25 3.25 0.0
Altay (1X2) 2.2 2.2 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.75 1.75 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.05 2.05 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. Lig - Group 2
  • Fixture: Buca FK vs Altay
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Buca FK 1.32 — Altay 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.1% · Probability edge: +5.7 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
3. Lig - Group 2 3. Lig - Group 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Balıkesirspor 3 3 0 0 9
2 Nilüfer Belediye 3 3 0 0 9
3 Etimesgut Belediyespor 4 3 0 1 9
4 Ayvalıkgücü Belediyespor 4 3 0 1 9
5 Anadolu Üniversitesi 3 2 1 0 7
6 Bursa Yıldırımspor 3 2 1 0 7
7 Gaziemirspor 4 2 0 2 6
8 Bigaspor 4 1 2 1 5
9 Eskişehirspor 3 1 1 1 4
10 Efeler 09 Spor 3 1 1 1 4
11 Akşehirspor 3 1 0 2 3
12 Buca FK 3 1 0 2 3
13 Altay 3 0 2 1 2
14 Karşıyaka 4 0 2 2 2
15 Utaş Uşakspor 3 0 2 1 2
16 Kepez Belediyespor 3 0 1 2 1
17 Denizli İYG 3 0 1 2 1
18 Kestelspor 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Balıkesirspor 3 11 2 +9 9
2 Ayvalıkgücü Belediyespor 4 9 5 +4 9
3 Nilüfer Belediye 3 7 1 +6 9
4 Anadolu Üniversitesi 3 7 2 +5 7
5 Bigaspor 4 7 5 +2 5
6 Etimesgut Belediyespor 4 6 1 +5 9
7 Gaziemirspor 4 6 5 +1 6
8 Eskişehirspor 3 6 5 +1 4
9 Bursa Yıldırımspor 3 5 2 +3 7
10 Akşehirspor 3 4 7 -3 3
11 Utaş Uşakspor 3 4 7 -3 2
12 Efeler 09 Spor 3 3 2 +1 4
13 Altay 3 3 4 -1 2
14 Karşıyaka 4 3 5 -2 2
15 Buca FK 3 3 7 -4 3
16 Kepez Belediyespor 3 2 7 -5 1
17 Denizli İYG 3 1 8 -7 1
18 Kestelspor 4 1 13 -12 0
3. Lig - Group 2 Turkey. 3. Lig - Group 2 Predictions