Bursa Yıldırımspor vs Karşıyaka Statistics & Analysis

Bursa Yıldırımspor

Sep 19, 2026 - 13:00

2 1.32

2 1.28

xG Accuracy: 68%

Karşıyaka

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Bursa Yıldırımspor Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8672805

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Bursa Yıldırımspor 2–2 Karşıyaka

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: 3. Lig - Group 2
Fixture: Bursa Yıldırımspor vs Karşıyaka
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Bursa Yıldırımspor 1.32 — Karşıyaka 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

3. Lig - Group 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Balıkesirspor	3	3	0	0	9
2	Nilüfer Belediye	3	3	0	0	9
3	Etimesgut Belediyespor	4	3	0	1	9
4	Ayvalıkgücü Belediyespor	4	3	0	1	9
5	Anadolu Üniversitesi	3	2	1	0	7
6	Bursa Yıldırımspor	3	2	1	0	7
7	Gaziemirspor	4	2	0	2	6
8	Bigaspor	4	1	2	1	5
9	Eskişehirspor	3	1	1	1	4
10	Efeler 09 Spor	3	1	1	1	4
11	Akşehirspor	3	1	0	2	3
12	Buca FK	3	1	0	2	3
13	Altay	3	0	2	1	2
14	Karşıyaka	4	0	2	2	2
15	Utaş Uşakspor	3	0	2	1	2
16	Kepez Belediyespor	3	0	1	2	1
17	Denizli İYG	3	0	1	2	1
18	Kestelspor	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Balıkesirspor	3	11	2	+9	9
2	Ayvalıkgücü Belediyespor	4	9	5	+4	9
3	Nilüfer Belediye	3	7	1	+6	9
4	Anadolu Üniversitesi	3	7	2	+5	7
5	Bigaspor	4	7	5	+2	5
6	Etimesgut Belediyespor	4	6	1	+5	9
7	Gaziemirspor	4	6	5	+1	6
8	Eskişehirspor	3	6	5	+1	4
9	Bursa Yıldırımspor	3	5	2	+3	7
10	Akşehirspor	3	4	7	-3	3
11	Utaş Uşakspor	3	4	7	-3	2
12	Efeler 09 Spor	3	3	2	+1	4
13	Altay	3	3	4	-1	2
14	Karşıyaka	4	3	5	-2	2
15	Buca FK	3	3	7	-4	3
16	Kepez Belediyespor	3	2	7	-5	1
17	Denizli İYG	3	1	8	-7	1
18	Kestelspor	4	1	13	-12	0