Statistics / Football / Turkey. 3. Lig - Group 1 / Karabük İdman Yurdu vs Amasyaspor 1968

Karabük İdman Yurdu vs Amasyaspor 1968 Statistics & Analysis

Karabük İdman Yurdu Karabük İdman Yurdu
Oct 03, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Amasyaspor 1968 Amasyaspor 1968
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Karabük İdman Yurdu Amasyaspor 1968 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11253716

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Amasyaspor 1968 win · Karabük İdman Yurdu 1–2 Amasyaspor 1968
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. Lig - Group 1
  • Fixture: Karabük İdman Yurdu vs Amasyaspor 1968
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Karabük İdman Yurdu 1.32 — Amasyaspor 1968 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
3. Lig - Group 1 3. Lig - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Fatsa Belediyespor 5 3 2 0 11
2 Kartal Bulvarspor 5 3 1 1 10
3 Pazarspor 5 3 1 1 10
4 Galata 5 2 3 0 9
5 Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 5 2 3 0 9
6 Tokat Bld Plevnespor 5 2 2 1 8
7 Orduspor 1967 5 2 2 1 8
8 Amasyaspor 1968 5 2 2 1 8
9 Küçükçekmece Sinopspor 5 2 2 1 8
10 Düzcespor 5 1 4 0 7
11 Karabük İdman Yurdu 5 2 1 2 7
12 Tuzlaspor 5 1 2 2 5
13 Gölcükspor 5 1 1 3 4
14 Silivrispor 5 1 1 3 4
15 İnkılapspor 5 1 1 3 4
16 Yalova Yeşilovaspor 5 1 1 3 4
17 Zonguldak Kömürspor 5 0 2 3 2
18 Beykoz İshaklıspor 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kartal Bulvarspor 5 12 6 +6 10
2 Fatsa Belediyespor 5 10 2 +8 11
3 Pazarspor 5 9 3 +6 10
4 Tokat Bld Plevnespor 5 8 6 +2 8
5 Galata 5 7 3 +4 9
6 Orduspor 1967 5 7 6 +1 8
7 Yalova Yeşilovaspor 5 7 14 -7 4
8 Amasyaspor 1968 5 6 5 +1 8
9 Küçükçekmece Sinopspor 5 6 5 +1 8
10 Düzcespor 5 5 4 +1 7
11 Gölcükspor 5 5 7 -2 4
12 Karabük İdman Yurdu 5 5 8 -3 7
13 İnkılapspor 5 5 10 -5 4
14 Tuzlaspor 5 4 4 0 5
15 Zonguldak Kömürspor 5 4 8 -4 2
16 Karadeniz Ereğli BSK 5 3 1 +2 9
17 Silivrispor 5 2 6 -4 4
18 Beykoz İshaklıspor 5 2 9 -7 1