Yalova Yeşilovaspor vs Tokat Bld Plevnespor Statistics & Analysis

Yalova Yeşilovaspor

Sep 06, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.24

3 1.36

xG Accuracy: 45%

Tokat Bld Plevnespor

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Tokat Bld Plevnespor Tokat Bld Plevnespor ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6361835

Closing Odds 2.6

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Tokat Bld Plevnespor win · Yalova Yeşilovaspor 0–3 Tokat Bld Plevnespor

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 5.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Yalova Yeşilovaspor (1X2)	32.4	34.6	-2.2
Draw (1X2)	29.6	27.7	+1.9
Tokat Bld Plevnespor (1X2)	38.0	37.8	+0.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	42.9	+5.3
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	57.1	-5.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.9%. The difference — about 5.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Yalova Yeşilovaspor (1X2)	2.6	2.6
Draw (1X2)	3.25	3.25
Tokat Bld Plevnespor (1X2)	2.38	2.38
Over 2.5 goals	2.2	2.2
Under 2.5 goals	1.65	1.65

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 3. Lig - Group 1
Fixture: Yalova Yeşilovaspor vs Tokat Bld Plevnespor
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): Yalova Yeşilovaspor 1.24 — Tokat Bld Plevnespor 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
Model: 48.2% · Implied: 42.8% · Probability edge: +5.4 pts · Est. EV: +6.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Lig - Group 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Orduspor 1967	4	2	2	0	8
2	Küçükçekmece Sinopspor	4	2	2	0	8
3	Pazarspor	3	2	1	0	7
4	Tokat Bld Plevnespor	3	1	2	0	5
5	Fatsa Belediyespor	3	1	2	0	5
6	Amasyaspor 1968	3	1	2	0	5
7	Düzcespor	3	1	2	0	5
8	Karadeniz Ereğli BSK	3	1	2	0	5
9	Kartal Bulvarspor	3	1	1	1	4
10	Gölcükspor	4	1	1	2	4
11	Yalova Yeşilovaspor	3	1	1	1	4
12	Karabük İdman Yurdu	3	1	1	1	4
13	Galata	3	0	3	0	3
14	Silivrispor	3	1	0	2	3
15	İnkılapspor	3	1	0	2	3
16	Tuzlaspor	3	0	1	2	1
17	Zonguldak Kömürspor	4	0	1	3	1
18	Beykoz İshaklıspor	3	0	0	3	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Orduspor 1967	4	7	3	+4	8
2	Kartal Bulvarspor	3	7	4	+3	4
3	Pazarspor	3	6	1	+5	7
4	Tokat Bld Plevnespor	3	6	3	+3	5
5	Küçükçekmece Sinopspor	4	5	2	+3	8
6	Gölcükspor	4	5	5	0	4
7	Yalova Yeşilovaspor	3	5	7	-2	4
8	Fatsa Belediyespor	3	4	2	+2	5
9	Amasyaspor 1968	3	4	3	+1	5
10	Düzcespor	3	4	3	+1	5
11	İnkılapspor	3	4	8	-4	3
12	Zonguldak Kömürspor	4	4	8	-4	1
13	Karabük İdman Yurdu	3	3	6	-3	4
14	Karadeniz Ereğli BSK	3	2	1	+1	5
15	Galata	3	2	2	0	3
16	Tuzlaspor	3	2	4	-2	1
17	Silivrispor	3	2	5	-3	3
18	Beykoz İshaklıspor	3	2	7	-5	0