Statistics / Football / Croatia. First NL / Sesvete vs Jadran LP

Sesvete vs Jadran LP Statistics & Analysis

Sesvete Sesvete
Oct 09, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.43
1 1.17
xG Accuracy: 85%
Jadran LP Jadran LP
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sesvete Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12687267

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sesvete 1–1 Jadran LP
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: First NL
  • Fixture: Sesvete vs Jadran LP
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): Sesvete 1.43 — Jadran LP 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 43.3% · Probability edge: +4.9 pts · Est. EV: +6.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
First NL First NL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Jadran LP 7 4 2 1 14
2 Croatia Zmijavci 7 4 1 2 13
3 HNK Cibalia 7 3 4 0 13
4 Bsk Bijelo Brdo 7 4 1 2 13
5 Segesta Sisak 7 3 2 2 11
6 Mladost Ždralovi 7 3 2 2 11
7 Sesvete 7 3 0 4 9
8 Dinamo Zagreb U21 7 3 0 4 9
9 Dugopolje 7 2 3 2 9
10 Dubrava Zagreb 7 2 2 3 8
11 Karlovac 1919 7 2 2 3 8
12 Orijent 1919 7 2 2 3 8
13 Vukovar 7 2 2 3 8
14 Opatija 7 2 1 4 7
15 Hrvace 7 2 1 4 7
16 Kustosija 7 1 3 3 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jadran LP 7 12 7 +5 14
2 Croatia Zmijavci 7 11 6 +5 13
3 Dinamo Zagreb U21 7 11 11 0 9
4 Vukovar 7 11 14 -3 8
5 Segesta Sisak 7 9 8 +1 11
6 Sesvete 7 9 8 +1 9
7 Dugopolje 7 9 9 0 9
8 Bsk Bijelo Brdo 7 8 6 +2 13
9 Karlovac 1919 7 8 10 -2 8
10 Opatija 7 8 10 -2 7
11 HNK Cibalia 7 7 4 +3 13
12 Hrvace 7 7 12 -5 7
13 Mladost Ždralovi 7 6 6 0 11
14 Dubrava Zagreb 7 6 7 -1 8
15 Orijent 1919 7 6 8 -2 8
16 Kustosija 7 3 5 -2 6
First NL Croatia. First NL Predictions