Statistics / Football / Croatia. First NL / Orijent 1919 vs Dubrava Zagreb

Orijent 1919 vs Dubrava Zagreb Statistics & Analysis

Orijent 1919 Orijent 1919
Oct 10, 2026 - 10:00
2 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 79%
Dubrava Zagreb Dubrava Zagreb
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Orijent 1919 Orijent 1919 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13186399

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Orijent 1919 win · Orijent 1919 2–1 Dubrava Zagreb
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: First NL
  • Fixture: Orijent 1919 vs Dubrava Zagreb
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Orijent 1919 1.37 — Dubrava Zagreb 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
First NL First NL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Croatia Zmijavci 8 5 1 2 16
2 Jadran LP 8 4 3 1 15
3 Mladost Ždralovi 8 4 2 2 14
4 Karlovac 1919 9 4 2 3 14
5 HNK Cibalia 8 3 4 1 13
6 Bsk Bijelo Brdo 8 4 1 3 13
7 Dinamo Zagreb U21 9 4 0 5 12
8 Segesta Sisak 8 3 2 3 11
9 Opatija 9 3 2 4 11
10 Orijent 1919 8 3 2 3 11
11 Vukovar 8 3 2 3 11
12 Sesvete 9 3 1 5 10
13 Dugopolje 8 2 3 3 9
14 Dubrava Zagreb 8 2 2 4 8
15 Kustosija 8 1 4 3 7
16 Hrvace 8 2 1 5 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb U21 9 14 13 +1 12
2 Jadran LP 8 13 8 +5 15
3 Croatia Zmijavci 8 12 6 +6 16
4 Karlovac 1919 9 12 12 0 14
5 Vukovar 8 12 14 -2 11
6 Bsk Bijelo Brdo 8 10 9 +1 13
7 Sesvete 9 10 10 0 10
8 Segesta Sisak 8 10 11 -1 11
9 Opatija 9 10 11 -1 11
10 Dugopolje 8 9 10 -1 9
11 HNK Cibalia 8 8 6 +2 13
12 Mladost Ždralovi 8 8 7 +1 14
13 Orijent 1919 8 8 9 -1 11
14 Dubrava Zagreb 8 7 9 -2 8
15 Hrvace 8 7 13 -6 7
16 Kustosija 8 4 6 -2 7
First NL Croatia. First NL Predictions