Statistics / Football / Albania. Superliga / Tirana vs AF Elbasani

Tirana vs AF Elbasani Statistics & Analysis

Tirana Tirana
Sep 20, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 68%
AF Elbasani AF Elbasani
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tirana Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8679530

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Tirana 2–2 AF Elbasani
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Superliga
  • Fixture: Tirana vs AF Elbasani
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Tirana 1.35 — AF Elbasani 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 42.2% · Probability edge: +6.0 pts · Est. EV: +8.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Superliga Superliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Teuta Durrës 5 4 1 0 13
2 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 5 4 0 1 12
3 Dinamo Tirana 5 4 0 1 12
4 Laci 5 2 1 2 7
5 AF Elbasani 5 1 3 1 6
6 Tirana 5 1 2 2 5
7 Partizani 5 1 1 3 4
8 Vora 5 1 1 3 4
9 Skenderbeu Korce 5 0 3 2 3
10 Vllaznia Shkodër 5 0 2 3 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 5 11 5 +6 12
2 Teuta Durrës 5 10 2 +8 13
3 Dinamo Tirana 5 10 5 +5 12
4 Tirana 5 8 9 -1 5
5 AF Elbasani 5 7 7 0 6
6 Laci 5 7 8 -1 7
7 Partizani 5 7 10 -3 4
8 Skenderbeu Korce 5 5 7 -2 3
9 Vllaznia Shkodër 5 5 10 -5 2
10 Vora 5 3 10 -7 4