Škofja Loka vs Rudar Trbovlje Statistics & Analysis

Škofja Loka

Oct 03, 2026 - 13:30

3 1.21

1 1.39

xG Accuracy: 55%

Rudar Trbovlje

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Rudar Trbovlje Škofja Loka ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11238423

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Škofja Loka win · Škofja Loka 3–1 Rudar Trbovlje

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 3. SNL - West
Fixture: Škofja Loka vs Rudar Trbovlje
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
xG (showing): Škofja Loka 1.21 — Rudar Trbovlje 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

3. SNL - West — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Izola	7	7	0	0	21
2	Dob	7	5	1	1	16
3	Idrija	7	5	1	1	16
4	Tolmin	7	3	3	1	12
5	Šencur	7	3	3	1	12
6	Litija	7	3	2	2	11
7	Rudar Trbovlje	7	3	1	3	10
8	Škofja Loka	7	2	3	2	9
9	Adria	7	2	1	4	7
10	Žiri	7	1	4	2	7
11	Vipava	7	2	0	5	6
12	IB 1975 Ljubljana	7	1	1	5	4
13	Šobec Lesce	7	0	3	4	3
14	Svoboda	7	0	1	6	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Izola	7	34	4	+30	21
2	Dob	7	18	6	+12	16
3	Tolmin	7	16	10	+6	12
4	Šencur	7	13	9	+4	12
5	Vipava	7	13	30	-17	6
6	Škofja Loka	7	12	16	-4	9
7	Idrija	7	11	7	+4	16
8	Litija	7	11	7	+4	11
9	Adria	7	11	14	-3	7
10	Rudar Trbovlje	7	10	15	-5	10
11	Žiri	7	7	10	-3	7
12	IB 1975 Ljubljana	7	6	13	-7	4
13	Šobec Lesce	7	6	13	-7	3
14	Svoboda	7	5	19	-14	1