Vipava vs Idrija Statistics & Analysis

Vipava

Sep 20, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.39

3 1.21

xG Accuracy: 52%

Idrija

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Vipava Idrija ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8679457

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Idrija win · Vipava 2–3 Idrija

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 3. SNL - West
Fixture: Vipava vs Idrija
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
xG (showing): Vipava 1.39 — Idrija 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

3. SNL - West — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Izola	6	6	0	0	18
2	Idrija	6	5	1	0	16
3	Dob	6	4	1	1	13
4	Rudar Trbovlje	6	3	1	2	10
5	Šencur	6	2	3	1	9
6	Škofja Loka	6	2	3	1	9
7	Tolmin	6	2	3	1	9
8	Litija	6	2	2	2	8
9	Adria	6	2	1	3	7
10	Žiri	6	1	3	2	6
11	Šobec Lesce	6	0	3	3	3
12	IB 1975 Ljubljana	6	1	0	5	3
13	Vipava	6	1	0	5	3
14	Svoboda	6	0	1	5	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Izola	6	28	4	+24	18
2	Dob	6	15	5	+10	13
3	Šencur	6	12	9	+3	9
4	Škofja Loka	6	12	10	+2	9
5	Tolmin	6	11	9	+2	9
6	Adria	6	11	11	0	7
7	Idrija	6	10	4	+6	16
8	Vipava	6	10	28	-18	3
9	Rudar Trbovlje	6	9	10	-1	10
10	Litija	6	8	7	+1	8
11	Žiri	6	7	10	-3	6
12	IB 1975 Ljubljana	6	6	13	-7	3
13	Svoboda	6	5	18	-13	1
14	Šobec Lesce	6	4	10	-6	3