Statistics / Football / Slovenia. 3. SNL - East / Rače vs Ljutomer

Rače vs Ljutomer Statistics & Analysis

Rače Rače
Oct 03, 2026 - 13:30
2 1.34
0 1.26
xG Accuracy: 59%
Ljutomer Ljutomer
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rače Rače ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11238300

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rače win · Rače 2–0 Ljutomer
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. SNL - East
  • Fixture: Rače vs Ljutomer
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Rače 1.34 — Ljutomer 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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3. SNL - East 3. SNL - East — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Odranci 8 6 2 0 20
2 Šmartno 8 5 1 2 16
3 Fužinar 8 5 1 2 16
4 NK Ormoz 8 5 1 2 16
5 Podvinci 9 4 2 3 14
6 Hajdina 9 3 4 2 13
7 Čarda Martjanci 8 3 3 2 12
8 Korotan Prevalje 8 2 5 1 11
9 Videm 9 3 2 4 11
10 Rače 8 2 3 3 9
11 Ljutomer 9 2 2 5 8
12 Dobrovce 8 2 0 6 6
13 Šampion Celje 8 1 1 6 4
14 Limbuš Pekre 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Fužinar 8 27 20 +7 16
2 Odranci 8 24 11 +13 20
3 Šmartno 8 22 14 +8 16
4 NK Ormoz 8 21 14 +7 16
5 Čarda Martjanci 8 20 15 +5 12
6 Hajdina 9 16 15 +1 13
7 Podvinci 9 15 17 -2 14
8 Videm 9 15 19 -4 11
9 Korotan Prevalje 8 13 11 +2 11
10 Ljutomer 9 12 14 -2 8
11 Šampion Celje 8 11 19 -8 4
12 Dobrovce 8 11 23 -12 6
13 Rače 8 9 9 0 9
14 Limbuš Pekre 8 6 21 -15 4