Podvinci vs Rače Statistics & Analysis

Podvinci

Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.29

1 1.31

xG Accuracy: 64%

Rače

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Rače Rače ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10100846

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Rače win · Podvinci 0–1 Rače

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: 3. SNL - East
Fixture: Podvinci vs Rače
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): Podvinci 1.29 — Rače 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

3. SNL - East — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Odranci	6	5	1	0	16
2	NK Ormoz	6	4	1	1	13
3	Fužinar	6	4	0	2	12
4	Šmartno	6	3	1	2	10
5	Podvinci	6	3	1	2	10
6	Hajdina	7	2	3	2	9
7	Čarda Martjanci	6	2	2	2	8
8	Ljutomer	6	2	2	2	8
9	Videm	7	2	2	3	8
10	Korotan Prevalje	6	1	4	1	7
11	Dobrovce	6	2	0	4	6
12	Šampion Celje	6	1	1	4	4
13	Limbuš Pekre	6	1	1	4	4
14	Rače	6	0	3	3	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Odranci	6	19	10	+9	16
2	Fužinar	6	19	13	+6	12
3	Čarda Martjanci	6	16	12	+4	8
4	Šmartno	6	16	13	+3	10
5	NK Ormoz	6	14	7	+7	13
6	Hajdina	7	13	15	-2	9
7	Videm	7	13	17	-4	8
8	Podvinci	6	11	13	-2	10
9	Ljutomer	6	10	8	+2	8
10	Šampion Celje	6	10	13	-3	4
11	Dobrovce	6	8	16	-8	6
12	Korotan Prevalje	6	6	6	0	7
13	Rače	6	6	9	-3	3
14	Limbuš Pekre	6	5	14	-9	4