Statistics / Football / Luxembourg. National Division / FC Differdange 03 vs Swift Hesperange

FC Differdange 03 vs Swift Hesperange Statistics & Analysis

FC Differdange 03 FC Differdange 03
Sep 16, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.52
0 1.08
xG Accuracy: 50%
Swift Hesperange Swift Hesperange
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FC Differdange 03 FC Differdange 03 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 15:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7927111

Closing Odds 1.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result FC Differdange 03 win · FC Differdange 03 3–0 Swift Hesperange
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Swift Hesperange (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 20.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FC Differdange 03 (1X2) 45.8 85.8 -40.0
Draw (1X2) 28.8 8.1 +20.7
Swift Hesperange (1X2) 25.4 6.1 +19.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.8% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 8.1%. The difference — about 20.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FC Differdange 03 (1X2) 1.03 1.03 0.0
Draw (1X2) 10.9 10.9 0.0
Swift Hesperange (1X2) 14.57 14.57 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours FC Differdange 03; market prices FC Differdange 03 instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: FC Differdange 03 1.52 xG vs Swift Hesperange 1.08 → FC Differdange 03 45.8%
  • Market: FC Differdange 03 ~85.8% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.2% · No 46.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
National Division National Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 UNA Strassen 8 8 0 0 24
2 FC Differdange 03 8 7 0 1 21
3 US Mondorf-les-bains 8 6 0 2 18
4 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 8 5 2 1 17
5 Progres Niederkorn 8 5 1 2 16
6 UN Kaerjeng 97 8 5 0 3 15
7 Atert Bissen 8 5 0 3 15
8 Résidence Walferdange 8 5 0 3 15
9 US Hostert 8 3 2 3 11
10 AS Jeunesse Esch 8 2 1 5 7
11 F91 Dudelange 8 2 1 5 7
12 US Rumelange 8 2 0 6 6
13 Victoria Rosport 8 1 2 5 5
14 Etzella Ettelbruck 8 1 2 5 5
15 Wiltz 8 1 1 6 4
16 Swift Hesperange 8 0 0 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 UN Kaerjeng 97 8 23 15 +8 15
2 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 8 21 8 +13 17
3 FC Differdange 03 8 19 5 +14 21
4 Atert Bissen 8 18 11 +7 15
5 UNA Strassen 8 17 2 +15 24
6 Résidence Walferdange 8 16 10 +6 15
7 US Mondorf-les-bains 8 16 11 +5 18
8 US Hostert 8 14 11 +3 11
9 AS Jeunesse Esch 8 14 17 -3 7
10 Wiltz 8 14 22 -8 4
11 Progres Niederkorn 8 13 5 +8 16
12 Victoria Rosport 8 11 20 -9 5
13 F91 Dudelange 8 8 15 -7 7
14 US Rumelange 8 8 23 -15 6
15 Etzella Ettelbruck 8 6 15 -9 5
16 Swift Hesperange 8 2 30 -28