Swift Hesperange vs Résidence Walferdange Statistics & Analysis

Swift Hesperange

Sep 13, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.32

3 1.28

xG Accuracy: 43%

Résidence Walferdange

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Swift Hesperange Résidence Walferdange ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7442974

Closing Odds 1.28

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Résidence Walferdange win · Swift Hesperange 0–3 Résidence Walferdange

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Swift Hesperange (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Swift Hesperange (1X2) by about 22.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Swift Hesperange (1X2)	36.1	13.3	+22.7
Draw (1X2)	29.7	15.3	+14.3
Résidence Walferdange (1X2)	34.2	71.3	-37.1
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	67.7	-19.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	32.3	+19.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Swift Hesperange (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 13.3%. The difference — about 22.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Swift Hesperange (1X2)	6.84	6.84
Draw (1X2)	5.96	5.96
Résidence Walferdange (1X2)	1.28	1.28
Over 2.5 goals	1.37	1.37
Under 2.5 goals	2.87	2.87

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Swift Hesperange; market prices Résidence Walferdange instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Swift Hesperange 1.32 xG vs Résidence Walferdange 1.28 → Swift Hesperange 36.1%
Market: Résidence Walferdange ~13.3% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

National Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	UNA Strassen	8	8	0	0	24
2	FC Differdange 03	8	7	0	1	21
3	US Mondorf-les-bains	8	6	0	2	18
4	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	8	5	2	1	17
5	Progres Niederkorn	8	5	1	2	16
6	UN Kaerjeng 97	8	5	0	3	15
7	Atert Bissen	8	5	0	3	15
8	Résidence Walferdange	8	5	0	3	15
9	US Hostert	8	3	2	3	11
10	AS Jeunesse Esch	8	2	1	5	7
11	F91 Dudelange	8	2	1	5	7
12	US Rumelange	8	2	0	6	6
13	Victoria Rosport	8	1	2	5	5
14	Etzella Ettelbruck	8	1	2	5	5
15	Wiltz	8	1	1	6	4
16	Swift Hesperange	8	0	0	8

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	UN Kaerjeng 97	8	23	15	+8	15
2	Racing FC Union Luxembourg	8	21	8	+13	17
3	FC Differdange 03	8	19	5	+14	21
4	Atert Bissen	8	18	11	+7	15
5	UNA Strassen	8	17	2	+15	24
6	Résidence Walferdange	8	16	10	+6	15
7	US Mondorf-les-bains	8	16	11	+5	18
8	US Hostert	8	14	11	+3	11
9	AS Jeunesse Esch	8	14	17	-3	7
10	Wiltz	8	14	22	-8	4
11	Progres Niederkorn	8	13	5	+8	16
12	Victoria Rosport	8	11	20	-9	5
13	F91 Dudelange	8	8	15	-7	7
14	US Rumelange	8	8	23	-15	6
15	Etzella Ettelbruck	8	6	15	-9	5
16	Swift Hesperange	8	2	30	-28