Statistics / Football / South-Korea. FA Cup / Busan I Park vs Geoje Citizen

Busan I Park vs Geoje Citizen Statistics & Analysis

Busan I Park Busan I Park
Jul 15, 2026 - 10:00
4 1.31
0 1.29
xG Accuracy: 34%
Geoje Citizen Geoje Citizen
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Busan I Park Busan I Park ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 17:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1481019

Closing Odds 1.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Busan I Park win · Busan I Park 4–0 Geoje Citizen
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 8.01 percentage points on Busan I Park (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Geoje Citizen (1X2) by about 15.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Busan I Park (1X2) 51.3 74.3 -23.0
Draw (1X2) 25.6 18.1 +7.5
Geoje Citizen (1X2) 23.1 7.6 +15.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 23.1% on Geoje Citizen (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 7.6%. The difference — about 15.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365 → Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Early and closing snapshots used different bookmakers — interpret movement with care.
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Busan I Park (1X2) 1.12 1.2 -8.0
Draw (1X2) 8.0 4.93 +6.6
Geoje Citizen (1X2) 15.0 11.75 +1.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: FA Cup
  • Fixture: Busan I Park vs Geoje Citizen
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-15 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 51.3% · Draw 25.6% · Away 23.2%
  • xG (showing): Busan I Park 1.31 — Geoje Citizen 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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