Statistics / Football / Brazil. Copa Rio / Pérolas Negras vs CFRJ / Maricá

Pérolas Negras vs CFRJ / Maricá Statistics & Analysis

Pérolas Negras Pérolas Negras
Jul 15, 2026 - 17:45
0 1.22
0 1.38
xG Accuracy: 49%
CFRJ / Maricá CFRJ / Maricá
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 CFRJ / Maricá Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 12:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3535133

Closing Odds 2.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Pérolas Negras 0–0 CFRJ / Maricá
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices CFRJ / Maricá (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 11.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Pérolas Negras (1X2) 31.9 32.2 -0.3
Draw (1X2) 30.3 33.6 -3.3
CFRJ / Maricá (1X2) 37.7 34.2 +3.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 36.5 +11.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 63.5 -11.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 36.5%. The difference — about 11.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Pérolas Negras (1X2) 2.76 2.76 0.0
Draw (1X2) 2.65 2.65 0.0
CFRJ / Maricá (1X2) 2.6 2.6 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.5 2.5 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.44 1.44 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Copa Rio
  • Fixture: Pérolas Negras vs CFRJ / Maricá
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-15 17:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 30.3% · Away 37.7%
  • xG (showing): Pérolas Negras 1.22 — CFRJ / Maricá 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.4% · Implied: 44.5% · Probability edge: +9.9 pts · Est. EV: +17.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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