Verden 04 vs Heeslinger SC Statistics & Analysis

Verden 04

Oct 03, 2026 - 11:30

4 1.24

1 1.36

xG Accuracy: 42%

Heeslinger SC

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Heeslinger SC Verden 04 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11223848

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Verden 04 win · Verden 04 4–1 Heeslinger SC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Oberliga - Niedersachsen
Fixture: Verden 04 vs Heeslinger SC
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 11:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): Verden 04 1.24 — Heeslinger SC 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Niedersachsen — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Heeslinger SC	9	5	3	1	18
2	Borussia Hildesheim	8	6	0	2	18
3	Wilhelmshaven	8	5	2	1	17
4	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	8	5	2	1	17
5	Spelle-Venhaus	8	4	3	1	15
6	Eintracht Braunschw. II	8	4	2	2	14
7	BW Lohne	8	4	2	2	14
8	Nordhorn	8	3	2	3	11
9	Verden 04	9	2	4	3	10
10	Bersenbrück	8	3	1	4	10
11	Germania Egestorf	8	2	2	4	8
12	Meppen II	8	2	1	5	7
13	Hemmingen	8	2	1	5	7
14	Lüneburger SK Hansa	8	0	5	3	5
15	Vorsfelde	8	1	2	5	5
16	Drochtersen/Assel II	8	1	0	7	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Eintracht Braunschw. II	8	28	16	+12	14
2	Heeslinger SC	9	26	12	+14	18
3	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	8	17	9	+8	17
4	Spelle-Venhaus	8	17	11	+6	15
5	BW Lohne	8	17	12	+5	14
6	Wilhelmshaven	8	16	4	+12	17
7	Borussia Hildesheim	8	15	8	+7	18
8	Meppen II	8	15	22	-7	7
9	Verden 04	9	13	14	-1	10
10	Germania Egestorf	8	13	21	-8	8
11	Lüneburger SK Hansa	8	12	15	-3	5
12	Nordhorn	8	12	18	-6	11
13	Bersenbrück	8	11	14	-3	10
14	Drochtersen/Assel II	8	9	19	-10	3
15	Hemmingen	8	9	22	-13	7
16	Vorsfelde	8	7	20	-13	5