Hemmingen vs Bersenbrück Statistics & Analysis

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Hemmingen

Sep 20, 2026 - 13:00

0 1.34

3 1.26

xG Accuracy: 43%

Bersenbrück

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Hemmingen Bersenbrück ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8671290

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Bersenbrück win · Hemmingen 0–3 Bersenbrück

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Oberliga - Niedersachsen
Fixture: Hemmingen vs Bersenbrück
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Hemmingen 1.34 — Bersenbrück 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Oberliga - Niedersachsen — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Borussia Hildesheim	8	6	0	2	18
2	Heeslinger SC	7	5	2	0	17
3	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	8	5	2	1	17
4	Spelle-Venhaus	7	4	3	0	15
5	Wilhelmshaven	7	4	2	1	14
6	BW Lohne	8	4	2	2	14
7	Eintracht Braunschw. II	7	4	1	2	13
8	Bersenbrück	7	3	1	3	10
9	Nordhorn	7	3	1	3	10
10	Hemmingen	8	2	1	5	7
11	Verden 04	7	1	3	3	6
12	Germania Egestorf	7	1	2	4	5
13	Lüneburger SK Hansa	7	0	4	3	4
14	Meppen II	7	1	1	5	4
15	Vorsfelde	7	1	1	5	4
16	Drochtersen/Assel II	7	1	0	6	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Eintracht Braunschw. II	7	25	13	+12	13
2	Heeslinger SC	7	22	5	+17	17
3	Spelle-Venhaus	7	17	7	+10	15
4	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	8	17	9	+8	17
5	BW Lohne	8	17	12	+5	14
6	Borussia Hildesheim	8	15	8	+7	18
7	Wilhelmshaven	7	13	4	+9	14
8	Bersenbrück	7	11	10	+1	10
9	Lüneburger SK Hansa	7	11	14	-3	4
10	Meppen II	7	11	22	-11	4
11	Nordhorn	7	9	15	-6	10
12	Drochtersen/Assel II	7	9	16	-7	3
13	Germania Egestorf	7	9	21	-12	5
14	Hemmingen	8	9	22	-13	7
15	Verden 04	7	8	12	-4	6
16	Vorsfelde	7	4	17	-13	4