Cambridge United vs Northampton Statistics & Analysis

Oct 06, 2026 - 18:00

2 1.36

1 1.24

xG Accuracy: 78%

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 30, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11915130

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Cambridge United win · Cambridge United 2–1 Northampton

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: EFL Trophy
Fixture: Cambridge United vs Northampton
Kickoff: 2026-10-06 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Cambridge United 1.36 — Northampton 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.6% · Probability edge: +8.2 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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