Plymouth vs Crystal Palace U21 Statistics & Analysis

Plymouth

Sep 22, 2026 - 18:00

5 1.39

1 1.21

xG Accuracy: 35%

Crystal Palace U21

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Plymouth Plymouth ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 02:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8990971

Closing Odds 1.27

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Plymouth win · Plymouth 5–1 Crystal Palace U21

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 0.71 percentage points on Plymouth (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Crystal Palace U21 (1X2) by about 20.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Plymouth (1X2)	39.5	73.8	-34.4
Draw (1X2)	29.5	15.2	+14.3
Crystal Palace U21 (1X2)	31.0	11.0	+20.0

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.0% on Crystal Palace U21 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 11.0%. The difference — about 20.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
Plymouth (1X2)	1.26	1.27	+0.7
Draw (1X2)	5.96	6.19	-0.3
Crystal Palace U21 (1X2)	8.09	8.53	-0.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Plymouth; market prices Plymouth instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Plymouth 1.39 xG vs Crystal Palace U21 1.21 → Plymouth 39.5%
Market: Plymouth ~73.8% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Plymouth & Crystal Palace U21!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics