York vs Newcastle United U21 Statistics & Analysis

York

Sep 15, 2026 - 18:00

1 1.37

3 1.23

xG Accuracy: 56%

Newcastle United U21

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 York Newcastle United U21 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7703903

Closing Odds 1.34

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Newcastle United U21 win · York 1–3 Newcastle United U21

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.95 percentage points on York (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Newcastle United U21 (1X2) by about 19.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
York (1X2)	38.5	70.1	-31.6
Draw (1X2)	29.6	17.4	+12.2
Newcastle United U21 (1X2)	31.9	12.6	+19.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	66.8	-18.6
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	33.2	+18.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.9% on Newcastle United U21 (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 12.6%. The difference — about 19.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
York (1X2)	1.36	1.34	+1.9
Draw (1X2)	5.08	5.41	-0.9
Newcastle United U21 (1X2)	6.8	7.48	-1.1
Over 2.5 goals	1.43	1.41	+1.4
Under 2.5 goals	2.7	2.83	-1.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours York; market prices York instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: York 1.37 xG vs Newcastle United U21 1.23 → York 38.5%
Market: York ~70.1% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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