Statistics / Football / England. National League - South / Weston-super-Mare vs Folkestone Invicta

Weston-super-Mare vs Folkestone Invicta Statistics & Analysis

Weston-super-Mare Weston-super-Mare
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.38
1 1.22
xG Accuracy: 85%
Folkestone Invicta Folkestone Invicta
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Weston-super-Mare Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13229490

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Weston-super-Mare 1–1 Folkestone Invicta
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National League - South
  • Fixture: Weston-super-Mare vs Folkestone Invicta
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Weston-super-Mare 1.38 — Folkestone Invicta 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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National League - South National League - South — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maidstone Utd 11 7 1 3 22
2 Salisbury 11 6 3 2 21
3 Billericay Town 11 6 3 2 21
4 Truro City 11 6 3 2 21
5 Dagenham & Redbridge 11 6 2 3 20
6 Weston-super-Mare 11 5 3 3 18
7 Dover 11 5 3 3 18
8 Tonbridge Angels 11 5 2 4 17
9 Dorking Wanderers 11 4 5 2 17
10 Farnham Town 11 5 2 4 17
11 Torquay 11 4 4 3 16
12 Ebbsfleet United 7 4 3 0 15
13 Chelmsford City 10 2 8 0 14
14 Hemel Hempstead Town 11 3 5 3 14
15 Folkestone Invicta 11 3 4 4 13
16 Maidenhead 11 3 4 4 13
17 Horsham 10 2 5 3 11
18 Farnborough 10 3 2 5 11
19 Chesham United 11 3 1 7 10
20 AFC Totton 10 3 1 6 10
21 Braintree 11 3 1 7 10
22 Hampton & Richmond 11 2 2 7 8
23 Walton & Hersham 11 2 2 7 8
24 Slough Town 11 1 1 9 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Billericay Town 11 25 14 +11 21
2 Dorking Wanderers 11 23 17 +6 17
3 Salisbury 11 20 8 +12 21
4 Tonbridge Angels 11 20 11 +9 17
5 Maidstone Utd 11 20 12 +8 22
6 Weston-super-Mare 11 19 11 +8 18
7 Torquay 11 18 15 +3 16
8 Dover 11 18 17 +1 18
9 Braintree 11 18 27 -9 10
10 Truro City 11 17 8 +9 21
11 Farnham Town 11 17 16 +1 17
12 Folkestone Invicta 11 16 13 +3 13
13 Chesham United 11 16 24 -8 10
14 Chelmsford City 10 14 8 +6 14
15 Maidenhead 11 12 12 0 13
16 Hampton & Richmond 11 11 26 -15 8
17 Slough Town 11 11 29 -18 4
18 Dagenham & Redbridge 11 10 7 +3 20
19 Hemel Hempstead Town 11 10 10 0 14
20 Horsham 10 10 12 -2 11
21 Walton & Hersham 11 10 27 -17 8
22 Ebbsfleet United 7 9 3 +6 15
23 AFC Totton 10 8 16 -8 10
24 Farnborough 10 8 17 -9 11
National League - South England. National League - South Predictions