Chesham United vs Chelmsford City Statistics & Analysis

Chesham United

Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.31

5 1.29

xG Accuracy: 25%

Chelmsford City

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Chesham United Chelmsford City ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13229062

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Chelmsford City win · Chesham United 0–5 Chelmsford City

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: National League - South
Fixture: Chesham United vs Chelmsford City
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Chesham United 1.31 — Chelmsford City 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 39.8% · Probability edge: +12.1 pts · Est. EV: +26.9%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

National League - South — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	11	7	1	3	22
2	Salisbury	11	6	3	2	21
3	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	21
4	Truro City	11	6	3	2	21
5	Dagenham & Redbridge	11	6	2	3	20
6	Weston-super-Mare	11	5	3	3	18
7	Dover	11	5	3	3	18
8	Tonbridge Angels	11	5	2	4	17
9	Dorking Wanderers	11	4	5	2	17
10	Farnham Town	11	5	2	4	17
11	Torquay	11	4	4	3	16
12	Ebbsfleet United	7	4	3	0	15
13	Chelmsford City	10	2	8	0	14
14	Hemel Hempstead Town	11	3	5	3	14
15	Folkestone Invicta	11	3	4	4	13
16	Maidenhead	11	3	4	4	13
17	Horsham	10	2	5	3	11
18	Farnborough	10	3	2	5	11
19	Chesham United	11	3	1	7	10
20	AFC Totton	10	3	1	6	10
21	Braintree	11	3	1	7	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	2	2	7	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	2	2	7	8
24	Slough Town	11	1	1	9	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Billericay Town	11	25	14	+11	21
2	Dorking Wanderers	11	23	17	+6	17
3	Salisbury	11	20	8	+12	21
4	Tonbridge Angels	11	20	11	+9	17
5	Maidstone Utd	11	20	12	+8	22
6	Weston-super-Mare	11	19	11	+8	18
7	Torquay	11	18	15	+3	16
8	Dover	11	18	17	+1	18
9	Braintree	11	18	27	-9	10
10	Truro City	11	17	8	+9	21
11	Farnham Town	11	17	16	+1	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	11	16	13	+3	13
13	Chesham United	11	16	24	-8	10
14	Chelmsford City	10	14	8	+6	14
15	Maidenhead	11	12	12	0	13
16	Hampton & Richmond	11	11	26	-15	8
17	Slough Town	11	11	29	-18	4
18	Dagenham & Redbridge	11	10	7	+3	20
19	Hemel Hempstead Town	11	10	10	0	14
20	Horsham	10	10	12	-2	11
21	Walton & Hersham	11	10	27	-17	8
22	Ebbsfleet United	7	9	3	+6	15
23	AFC Totton	10	8	16	-8	10
24	Farnborough	10	8	17	-9	11