Braintree vs Truro City Statistics & Analysis

Braintree

Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.21

2 1.39

xG Accuracy: 80%

Truro City

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Truro City Truro City ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13229064

Closing Odds 1.59

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Truro City win · Braintree 1–2 Truro City

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Braintree (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Braintree (1X2) by about 10.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Braintree (1X2)	31.0	20.1	+10.9
Draw (1X2)	29.5	23.0	+6.5
Truro City (1X2)	39.5	56.9	-17.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.0% on Braintree (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.1%. The difference — about 10.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: 22bet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE20)	Closing (PRE1)
Braintree (1X2)	4.49	4.49
Draw (1X2)	3.94	3.94
Truro City (1X2)	1.59	1.59

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: National League - South
Fixture: Braintree vs Truro City
Kickoff: 2026-10-10 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
xG (showing): Braintree 1.21 — Truro City 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 12, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

National League - South — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	10	6	1	3	19
2	Dagenham & Redbridge	10	6	1	3	19
3	Salisbury	10	5	3	2	18
4	Billericay Town	10	5	3	2	18
5	Weston-super-Mare	10	5	2	3	17
6	Truro City	9	5	2	2	17
7	Dover	10	5	2	3	17
8	Dorking Wanderers	10	4	4	2	16
9	Farnham Town	9	5	1	3	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	4	2	4	14
11	Maidenhead	10	3	4	3	13
12	Hemel Hempstead Town	10	3	4	3	13
13	Torquay	10	3	4	3	13
14	Folkestone Invicta	9	3	3	3	12
15	Chelmsford City	9	1	8	0	11
16	Horsham	9	2	5	2	11
17	Farnborough	9	3	2	4	11
18	Chesham United	10	3	1	6	10
19	Braintree	9	3	1	5	10
20	AFC Totton	9	3	1	5	10
21	Ebbsfleet United	5	2	3	0	9
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	2	2	6	8
23	Slough Town	10	1	1	8	4
24	Walton & Hersham	9	0	2	7	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Dorking Wanderers	10	22	16	+6	16
2	Billericay Town	10	21	14	+7	18
3	Tonbridge Angels	10	19	11	+8	14
4	Salisbury	10	18	7	+11	18
5	Weston-super-Mare	10	18	10	+8	17
6	Maidstone Utd	10	18	11	+7	19
7	Dover	10	17	16	+1	17
8	Chesham United	10	16	19	-3	10
9	Braintree	9	16	22	-6	10
10	Folkestone Invicta	9	15	11	+4	12
11	Farnham Town	9	14	12	+2	16
12	Truro City	9	13	5	+8	17
13	Torquay	10	13	14	-1	13
14	Maidenhead	10	12	11	+1	13
15	Hampton & Richmond	10	11	24	-13	8
16	Dagenham & Redbridge	10	10	7	+3	19
17	Hemel Hempstead Town	10	10	10	0	13
18	Slough Town	10	10	24	-14	4
19	Chelmsford City	9	9	8	+1	11
20	Horsham	9	9	10	-1	11
21	Farnborough	9	8	13	-5	11
22	AFC Totton	9	8	15	-7	10
23	Ebbsfleet United	5	6	3	+3	9
24	Walton & Hersham	9	6	26	-20	2