AFC Totton vs Hampton & Richmond Statistics & Analysis

AFC Totton

Sep 05, 2026 - 14:00

4 1.27

1 1.33

xG Accuracy: 43%

Hampton & Richmond

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Hampton & Richmond AFC Totton ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 02:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6148946

Closing Odds 2.04

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result AFC Totton win · AFC Totton 4–1 Hampton & Richmond

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Hampton & Richmond (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 7.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
AFC Totton (1X2)	33.8	45.5	-11.8
Draw (1X2)	29.6	24.3	+5.3
Hampton & Richmond (1X2)	36.6	30.2	+6.4
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	56.1	-7.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	43.9	+7.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 43.9%. The difference — about 7.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
AFC Totton (1X2)	2.04	2.04
Draw (1X2)	3.82	3.82
Hampton & Richmond (1X2)	3.08	3.08
Over 2.5 goals	1.68	1.68
Under 2.5 goals	2.15	2.15

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: National League - South
Fixture: AFC Totton vs Hampton & Richmond
Kickoff: 2026-09-05 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
xG (showing): AFC Totton 1.27 — Hampton & Richmond 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.2% · Probability edge: +7.6 pts · Est. EV: +11.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

National League - South — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	9	6	1	2	19
2	Weston-super-Mare	9	5	2	2	17
3	Dagenham & Redbridge	9	5	1	3	16
4	Salisbury	9	4	3	2	15
5	Billericay Town	9	4	3	2	15
6	Tonbridge Angels	9	4	2	3	14
7	Truro City	8	4	2	2	14
8	Dover	9	4	2	3	14
9	Dorking Wanderers	9	3	4	2	13
10	Torquay	9	3	4	2	13
11	Farnham Town	8	4	1	3	13
12	Folkestone Invicta	8	3	3	2	12
13	Chesham United	9	3	1	5	10
14	Chelmsford City	8	1	7	0	10
15	Horsham	8	2	4	2	10
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	9	2	4	3	10
17	Maidenhead	9	2	4	3	10
18	Braintree	8	3	1	4	10
19	AFC Totton	8	3	1	4	10
20	Farnborough	8	3	1	4	10
21	Hampton & Richmond	9	2	2	5	8
22	Ebbsfleet United	3	1	2	0	5
23	Slough Town	8	1	0	7	3
24	Walton & Hersham	8	0	1	7	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Tonbridge Angels	9	18	9	+9	14
2	Dorking Wanderers	9	18	13	+5	13
3	Billericay Town	9	18	14	+4	15
4	Maidstone Utd	9	17	9	+8	19
5	Weston-super-Mare	9	16	7	+9	17
6	Salisbury	9	16	7	+9	15
7	Chesham United	9	16	15	+1	10
8	Folkestone Invicta	8	15	9	+6	12
9	Dover	9	15	16	-1	14
10	Torquay	9	13	11	+2	13
11	Braintree	8	13	18	-5	10
12	Truro City	8	11	4	+7	14
13	Farnham Town	8	11	10	+1	13
14	Hampton & Richmond	9	11	23	-12	8
15	Dagenham & Redbridge	9	9	7	+2	16
16	Chelmsford City	8	9	8	+1	10
17	Horsham	8	9	10	-1	10
18	Slough Town	8	9	21	-12	3
19	Hemel Hempstead Town	9	8	10	-2	10
20	Maidenhead	9	8	11	-3	10
21	AFC Totton	8	8	13	-5	10
22	Farnborough	8	6	11	-5	10
23	Walton & Hersham	8	4	24	-20	1
24	Ebbsfleet United	3	3	1	+2	5

England. National League - South Predictions

Slough Town

Ebbsfleet United

Sep 29

1.21 : 1.39