Chesham United vs Walton & Hersham Statistics & Analysis

Chesham United

Aug 22, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.38

0 1.22

xG Accuracy: 60%

Walton & Hersham

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Chesham United Chesham United ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4227602

Closing Odds 1.43

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Chesham United win · Chesham United 2–0 Walton & Hersham

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Walton & Hersham (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Walton & Hersham (1X2) by about 16.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Chesham United (1X2)	39.0	64.9	-25.9
Draw (1X2)	29.5	20.6	+9.0
Walton & Hersham (1X2)	31.5	14.6	+16.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	61.9	-13.7
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	38.1	+13.7

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.5% on Walton & Hersham (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.6%. The difference — about 16.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE10)
Chesham United (1X2)	1.43	1.43
Draw (1X2)	4.51	4.51
Walton & Hersham (1X2)	6.37	6.37
Over 2.5 goals	1.51	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	2.45	2.45

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: National League - South
Fixture: Chesham United vs Walton & Hersham
Kickoff: 2026-08-22 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
xG (showing): Chesham United 1.38 — Walton & Hersham 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

National League - South — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Maidstone Utd	9	6	1	2	19
2	Weston-super-Mare	9	5	2	2	17
3	Dagenham & Redbridge	9	5	1	3	16
4	Salisbury	9	4	3	2	15
5	Billericay Town	9	4	3	2	15
6	Tonbridge Angels	9	4	2	3	14
7	Truro City	8	4	2	2	14
8	Dover	9	4	2	3	14
9	Dorking Wanderers	9	3	4	2	13
10	Torquay	9	3	4	2	13
11	Farnham Town	8	4	1	3	13
12	Folkestone Invicta	8	3	3	2	12
13	Chesham United	9	3	1	5	10
14	Chelmsford City	8	1	7	0	10
15	Horsham	8	2	4	2	10
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	9	2	4	3	10
17	Maidenhead	9	2	4	3	10
18	Braintree	8	3	1	4	10
19	AFC Totton	8	3	1	4	10
20	Farnborough	8	3	1	4	10
21	Hampton & Richmond	9	2	2	5	8
22	Ebbsfleet United	3	1	2	0	5
23	Slough Town	8	1	0	7	3
24	Walton & Hersham	8	0	1	7	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Tonbridge Angels	9	18	9	+9	14
2	Dorking Wanderers	9	18	13	+5	13
3	Billericay Town	9	18	14	+4	15
4	Maidstone Utd	9	17	9	+8	19
5	Weston-super-Mare	9	16	7	+9	17
6	Salisbury	9	16	7	+9	15
7	Chesham United	9	16	15	+1	10
8	Folkestone Invicta	8	15	9	+6	12
9	Dover	9	15	16	-1	14
10	Torquay	9	13	11	+2	13
11	Braintree	8	13	18	-5	10
12	Truro City	8	11	4	+7	14
13	Farnham Town	8	11	10	+1	13
14	Hampton & Richmond	9	11	23	-12	8
15	Dagenham & Redbridge	9	9	7	+2	16
16	Chelmsford City	8	9	8	+1	10
17	Horsham	8	9	10	-1	10
18	Slough Town	8	9	21	-12	3
19	Hemel Hempstead Town	9	8	10	-2	10
20	Maidenhead	9	8	11	-3	10
21	AFC Totton	8	8	13	-5	10
22	Farnborough	8	6	11	-5	10
23	Walton & Hersham	8	4	24	-20	1
24	Ebbsfleet United	3	3	1	+2	5