Statistics / Football / England. National League - North / South Shields vs Marine

South Shields vs Marine Statistics & Analysis

South Shields South Shields
Sep 08, 2026 - 18:45
2 1.43
1 1.17
xG Accuracy: 82%
Marine Marine
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 South Shields South Shields ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 02, 2026 · 02:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6580993

Closing Odds 1.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result South Shields win · South Shields 2–1 Marine
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 1.93 percentage points on South Shields (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 15.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
South Shields (1X2) 41.4 60.6 -19.3
Draw (1X2) 29.4 21.4 +8.0
Marine (1X2) 29.3 17.9 +11.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 64.1 -15.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 35.9 +15.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.9%. The difference — about 15.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
South Shields (1X2) 1.48 1.55 -1.9
Draw (1X2) 4.5 4.39 +0.8
Marine (1X2) 5.5 5.24 +1.1
Over 2.5 goals 1.45 1.47 -0.3
Under 2.5 goals 2.62 2.62 +0.3

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National League - North
  • Fixture: South Shields vs Marine
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-08 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): South Shields 1.43 — Marine 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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National League - North National League - North — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hereford 9 7 1 1 22
2 Oxford City 9 6 1 2 19
3 Macclesfield 9 5 3 1 18
4 Spalding United 9 5 2 2 17
5 Hebburn Town 9 5 2 2 17
6 South Shields 8 5 2 1 17
7 Buxton 9 5 1 3 16
8 Bedford Town 9 5 0 4 15
9 Chester 9 4 2 3 14
10 Morecambe 9 4 1 4 13
11 Merthyr Town 9 3 4 2 13
12 King's Lynn Town 9 4 1 4 13
13 Harborough Town 9 3 3 3 12
14 Worksop Town 9 4 0 5 12
15 Scarborough Athletic 9 3 2 4 11
16 Chorley 9 3 2 4 11
17 Marine 9 3 0 6 9
18 AFC Telford United 9 2 3 4 9
19 Hednesford Town 9 2 3 4 9
20 Southport 9 2 2 5 8
21 Brackley Town 8 2 2 4 8
22 Radcliffe 9 2 0 7 6
23 Darlington 1883 9 2 0 7 6
24 Spennymoor Town 9 1 3 5 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hereford 9 21 4 +17 22
2 Buxton 9 18 14 +4 16
3 Oxford City 9 17 6 +11 19
4 Hebburn Town 9 15 15 0 17
5 King's Lynn Town 9 15 15 0 13
6 Scarborough Athletic 9 14 11 +3 11
7 Chorley 9 14 16 -2 11
8 Spalding United 9 13 6 +7 17
9 Morecambe 9 13 8 +5 13
10 Bedford Town 9 13 13 0 15
11 Hednesford Town 9 13 16 -3 9
12 Macclesfield 9 12 6 +6 18
13 Merthyr Town 9 11 9 +2 13
14 Southport 9 11 18 -7 8
15 Darlington 1883 9 11 20 -9 6
16 Harborough Town 9 10 11 -1 12
17 Marine 9 10 11 -1 9
18 Chester 9 9 8 +1 14
19 South Shields 8 9 10 -1 17
20 Worksop Town 9 9 12 -3 12
21 Spennymoor Town 9 9 19 -10 6
22 AFC Telford United 9 8 10 -2 9
23 Radcliffe 9 8 16 -8 6
24 Brackley Town 8 7 16 -9 8
National League - North England. National League - North Predictions