Sportfreunde Siegen vs Borussia Dortmund II Statistics & Analysis

Sportfreunde Siegen

Oct 04, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.36

3 1.24

xG Accuracy: 56%

Borussia Dortmund II

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Sportfreunde Siegen Borussia Dortmund II ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 29, 2026 · 01:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11663991

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Borussia Dortmund II win · Sportfreunde Siegen 1–3 Borussia Dortmund II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Regionalliga - West
Fixture: Sportfreunde Siegen vs Borussia Dortmund II
Kickoff: 2026-10-04 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Sportfreunde Siegen 1.36 — Borussia Dortmund II 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Regionalliga - West — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	11	9	1	1	28
2	Borussia Dortmund II	11	7	4	0	25
3	FC Gutersloh	11	7	2	2	23
4	Borussia M'gladbach II	11	6	2	3	20
5	Westfalia Rhynern	11	5	2	4	17
6	Sportfreunde Siegen	11	4	4	3	16
7	Bergisch Gladbach	11	5	1	5	16
8	Bonner SC	11	3	6	2	15
9	Schalke 04 II	10	5	0	5	15
10	Köln II	10	4	2	4	14
11	FC Bocholt	11	3	4	4	13
12	Paderborn II	11	3	4	4	13
13	SG Wattenscheid 09	11	3	3	5	12
14	Hilden	11	3	3	5	12
15	Bochum II	11	3	2	6	11
16	SV Rodinghausen	11	2	3	6	9
17	Wiedenbrück	11	2	2	7	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	11	0	3	8	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	11	28	9	+19	28
2	FC Gutersloh	11	26	13	+13	23
3	Borussia M'gladbach II	11	25	13	+12	20
4	FC Bocholt	11	24	26	-2	13
5	Borussia Dortmund II	11	23	11	+12	25
6	Bonner SC	11	21	20	+1	15
7	Schalke 04 II	10	20	20	0	15
8	Westfalia Rhynern	11	20	22	-2	17
9	Sportfreunde Siegen	11	19	18	+1	16
10	Köln II	10	19	18	+1	14
11	Bergisch Gladbach	11	19	22	-3	16
12	Paderborn II	11	19	22	-3	13
13	SG Wattenscheid 09	11	16	20	-4	12
14	Hilden	11	16	23	-7	12
15	SV Rodinghausen	11	15	20	-5	9
16	Bochum II	11	14	20	-6	11
17	Wiedenbrück	11	14	26	-12	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	11	7	22	-15	3