Bochum II vs Schalke 04 II Statistics & Analysis

Bochum II

Sep 26, 2026 - 12:00

0 1.20

2 1.40

xG Accuracy: 61%

Schalke 04 II

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Schalke 04 II Schalke 04 II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10084771

Closing Odds 3.73

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Schalke 04 II win · Bochum II 0–2 Schalke 04 II

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 4.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Bochum II (1X2)	30.6	32.8	-2.3
Draw (1X2)	29.5	24.6	+4.9
Schalke 04 II (1X2)	40.0	42.6	-2.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.5% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.6%. The difference — about 4.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Bochum II (1X2)	2.79	2.79
Draw (1X2)	3.73	3.73
Schalke 04 II (1X2)	2.15	2.15

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Regionalliga - West
Fixture: Bochum II vs Schalke 04 II
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
xG (showing): Bochum II 1.2 — Schalke 04 II 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 30.9% · Probability edge: +20.9 pts · Est. EV: +53.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	10	8	1	1	25
2	Borussia Dortmund II	10	6	4	0	22
3	Borussia M'gladbach II	10	6	2	2	20
4	FC Gutersloh	10	6	2	2	20
5	Westfalia Rhynern	10	5	2	3	17
6	Bergisch Gladbach	10	5	1	4	16
7	Schalke 04 II	10	5	0	5	15
8	Köln II	10	4	2	4	14
9	Paderborn II	10	3	4	3	13
10	Sportfreunde Siegen	9	3	4	2	13
11	FC Bocholt	10	3	4	3	13
12	Bonner SC	10	2	6	2	12
13	SG Wattenscheid 09	10	2	3	5	9
14	Hilden	10	2	3	5	9
15	Bochum II	10	2	2	6	8
16	Wiedenbrück	9	2	2	5	8
17	SV Rodinghausen	10	1	3	6	6
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	10	0	3	7	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	10	24	9	+15	25
2	Borussia M'gladbach II	10	23	10	+13	20
3	FC Gutersloh	10	22	10	+12	20
4	FC Bocholt	10	21	22	-1	13
5	Borussia Dortmund II	10	20	10	+10	22
6	Schalke 04 II	10	20	20	0	15
7	Köln II	10	19	18	+1	14
8	Paderborn II	10	19	18	+1	13
9	Bonner SC	10	19	19	0	12
10	Westfalia Rhynern	10	19	20	-1	17
11	Bergisch Gladbach	10	17	18	-1	16
12	Sportfreunde Siegen	9	15	14	+1	13
13	SG Wattenscheid 09	10	13	19	-6	9
14	SV Rodinghausen	10	13	19	-6	6
15	Wiedenbrück	9	12	20	-8	8
16	Hilden	10	12	21	-9	9
17	Bochum II	10	11	18	-7	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	10	6	20	-14	3