Statistics / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - West / Wiedenbrück vs Borussia M'gladbach II

Wiedenbrück vs Borussia M'gladbach II Statistics & Analysis

Wiedenbrück Wiedenbrück
Sep 02, 2026 - 17:30
1 1.22
4 1.38
xG Accuracy: 46%
Borussia M'gladbach II Borussia M'gladbach II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Borussia M'gladbach II Borussia M'gladbach II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5625636

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Borussia M'gladbach II win · Wiedenbrück 1–4 Borussia M'gladbach II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 2.71 percentage points on Over 2.5 goals between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 17.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Wiedenbrück (1X2) 31.5 24.9 +6.6
Draw (1X2) 29.5 23.3 +6.3
Borussia M'gladbach II (1X2) 39.0 51.9 -12.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 65.7 -17.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 34.3 +17.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 34.3%. The difference — about 17.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Wiedenbrück (1X2) 3.61 3.73 -0.5
Draw (1X2) 3.8 3.99 -0.8
Borussia M'gladbach II (1X2) 1.81 1.79 +1.3
Over 2.5 goals 1.48 1.43 +2.7
Under 2.5 goals 2.52 2.74 -2.7

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: Wiedenbrück vs Borussia M'gladbach II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-02 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Wiedenbrück 1.22 — Borussia M'gladbach II 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 36.0% · Probability edge: +15.8 pts · Est. EV: +41.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 10 8 1 1 25
2 Borussia Dortmund II 10 6 4 0 22
3 Borussia M'gladbach II 10 6 2 2 20
4 FC Gutersloh 10 6 2 2 20
5 Westfalia Rhynern 10 5 2 3 17
6 Bergisch Gladbach 10 5 1 4 16
7 Schalke 04 II 10 5 0 5 15
8 Köln II 10 4 2 4 14
9 Paderborn II 10 3 4 3 13
10 Sportfreunde Siegen 9 3 4 2 13
11 FC Bocholt 10 3 4 3 13
12 Bonner SC 10 2 6 2 12
13 SG Wattenscheid 09 10 2 3 5 9
14 Hilden 10 2 3 5 9
15 Bochum II 10 2 2 6 8
16 Wiedenbrück 9 2 2 5 8
17 SV Rodinghausen 10 1 3 6 6
18 Sportfreunde Lotte 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 10 24 9 +15 25
2 Borussia M'gladbach II 10 23 10 +13 20
3 FC Gutersloh 10 22 10 +12 20
4 FC Bocholt 10 21 22 -1 13
5 Borussia Dortmund II 10 20 10 +10 22
6 Schalke 04 II 10 20 20 0 15
7 Köln II 10 19 18 +1 14
8 Paderborn II 10 19 18 +1 13
9 Bonner SC 10 19 19 0 12
10 Westfalia Rhynern 10 19 20 -1 17
11 Bergisch Gladbach 10 17 18 -1 16
12 Sportfreunde Siegen 9 15 14 +1 13
13 SG Wattenscheid 09 10 13 19 -6 9
14 SV Rodinghausen 10 13 19 -6 6
15 Wiedenbrück 9 12 20 -8 8
16 Hilden 10 12 21 -9 9
17 Bochum II 10 11 18 -7 8
18 Sportfreunde Lotte 10 6 20 -14 3
Regionalliga - West Germany. Regionalliga - West Predictions