Statistics / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - West / Bonner SC vs Sportfreunde Lotte

Bonner SC vs Sportfreunde Lotte Statistics & Analysis

Bonner SC Bonner SC
Aug 14, 2026 - 17:30
2 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 68%
Sportfreunde Lotte Sportfreunde Lotte
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bonner SC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3233434

Closing Odds 1.96
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Bonner SC 2–2 Sportfreunde Lotte
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 5.61 percentage points on Bonner SC (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sportfreunde Lotte (1X2) by about 6.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Bonner SC (1X2) 37.6 46.7 -9.2
Draw (1X2) 29.6 26.9 +2.7
Sportfreunde Lotte (1X2) 32.9 26.4 +6.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 52.7 -4.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 47.3 +4.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 32.9% on Sportfreunde Lotte (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.4%. The difference — about 6.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Bonner SC (1X2) 1.74 1.96 -5.6
Draw (1X2) 3.62 3.41 +1.7
Sportfreunde Lotte (1X2) 4.05 3.47 +3.9
Over 2.5 goals 1.72 1.78 -1.6
Under 2.5 goals 2.04 1.98 +1.6

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: Bonner SC vs Sportfreunde Lotte
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-14 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Bonner SC 1.35 — Sportfreunde Lotte 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.4% · Probability edge: +4.4 pts · Est. EV: +2.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 10 8 1 1 25
2 Borussia Dortmund II 10 6 4 0 22
3 Borussia M'gladbach II 10 6 2 2 20
4 FC Gutersloh 10 6 2 2 20
5 Westfalia Rhynern 10 5 2 3 17
6 Bergisch Gladbach 10 5 1 4 16
7 Schalke 04 II 10 5 0 5 15
8 Köln II 10 4 2 4 14
9 Paderborn II 10 3 4 3 13
10 Sportfreunde Siegen 9 3 4 2 13
11 FC Bocholt 10 3 4 3 13
12 Bonner SC 10 2 6 2 12
13 SG Wattenscheid 09 10 2 3 5 9
14 Hilden 10 2 3 5 9
15 Bochum II 10 2 2 6 8
16 Wiedenbrück 9 2 2 5 8
17 SV Rodinghausen 10 1 3 6 6
18 Sportfreunde Lotte 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen 10 24 9 +15 25
2 Borussia M'gladbach II 10 23 10 +13 20
3 FC Gutersloh 10 22 10 +12 20
4 FC Bocholt 10 21 22 -1 13
5 Borussia Dortmund II 10 20 10 +10 22
6 Schalke 04 II 10 20 20 0 15
7 Köln II 10 19 18 +1 14
8 Paderborn II 10 19 18 +1 13
9 Bonner SC 10 19 19 0 12
10 Westfalia Rhynern 10 19 20 -1 17
11 Bergisch Gladbach 10 17 18 -1 16
12 Sportfreunde Siegen 9 15 14 +1 13
13 SG Wattenscheid 09 10 13 19 -6 9
14 SV Rodinghausen 10 13 19 -6 6
15 Wiedenbrück 9 12 20 -8 8
16 Hilden 10 12 21 -9 9
17 Bochum II 10 11 18 -7 8
18 Sportfreunde Lotte 10 6 20 -14 3
Regionalliga - West Germany. Regionalliga - West Predictions