FSV Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II Statistics & Analysis

FSV Mainz 05 II

Oct 03, 2026 - 12:00

0 1.29

2 1.31

xG Accuracy: 58%

Freiburg II

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Freiburg II Freiburg II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11227289

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Freiburg II win · FSV Mainz 05 II 0–2 Freiburg II

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Regionalliga - SudWest
Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 II vs Freiburg II
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): FSV Mainz 05 II 1.29 — Freiburg II 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Regionalliga - SudWest — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	10	5	5	0	20
2	Stuttgarter Kickers	10	6	2	2	20
3	Kickers Offenbach	10	6	1	3	19
4	VfR Aalen	10	5	3	2	18
5	Freiburg II	9	4	4	1	16
6	Eintracht Trier	10	5	1	4	16
7	FC 08 Homburg	10	4	3	3	15
8	VfR Mannheim	9	3	5	1	14
9	TSV Steinbach	10	3	4	3	13
10	SV Sandhausen	10	3	4	3	13
11	FSV Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	12
12	Hessen Kassel	10	3	2	5	11
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	8	3	1	4	10
14	FC Astoria Walldorf	10	2	3	5	9
15	FSV Mainz 05 II	10	3	0	7	9
16	Kaiserslautern II	9	2	3	4	9
17	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	10	1	3	6	6
18	SSV Ulm 1846	10	0	5	5	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	10	26	11	+15	20
2	Kickers Offenbach	10	20	13	+7	19
3	Stuttgarter Kickers	10	19	13	+6	20
4	VfR Aalen	10	18	11	+7	18
5	Freiburg II	9	18	11	+7	16
6	Hessen Kassel	10	17	19	-2	11
7	SV Sandhausen	10	16	20	-4	13
8	TSV Steinbach	10	15	15	0	13
9	FC Astoria Walldorf	10	15	18	-3	9
10	VfR Mannheim	9	14	9	+5	14
11	FSV Frankfurt	9	14	13	+1	12
12	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	10	14	22	-8	6
13	FC 08 Homburg	10	13	13	0	15
14	SSV Ulm 1846	10	13	21	-8	5
15	Eintracht Trier	10	11	11	0	16
16	Eintracht Frankfurt II	8	11	12	-1	10
17	FSV Mainz 05 II	10	10	21	-11	9
18	Kaiserslautern II	9	7	18	-11	9