Statistics / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest / SGV Freiberg vs TSV Steinbach

SGV Freiberg vs TSV Steinbach Statistics & Analysis

SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg
Oct 03, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.31
2 1.29
xG Accuracy: 68%
TSV Steinbach TSV Steinbach
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SGV Freiberg Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11227237

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · SGV Freiberg 2–2 TSV Steinbach
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - SudWest
  • Fixture: SGV Freiberg vs TSV Steinbach
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): SGV Freiberg 1.31 — TSV Steinbach 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - SudWest Regionalliga - SudWest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Stuttgarter Kickers 10 6 2 2 20
2 SGV Freiberg 9 5 4 0 19
3 Kickers Offenbach 10 6 1 3 19
4 Eintracht Trier 9 5 1 3 16
5 VfR Aalen 9 4 3 2 15
6 VfR Mannheim 9 3 5 1 14
7 FC 08 Homburg 9 4 2 3 14
8 Freiburg II 8 3 4 1 13
9 SV Sandhausen 10 3 4 3 13
10 FSV Frankfurt 8 3 3 2 12
11 TSV Steinbach 9 3 3 3 12
12 Eintracht Frankfurt II 8 3 1 4 10
13 Hessen Kassel 9 3 1 5 10
14 FSV Mainz 05 II 9 3 0 6 9
15 Kaiserslautern II 9 2 3 4 9
16 FC Astoria Walldorf 9 1 3 5 6
17 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 9 1 2 6 5
18 SSV Ulm 1846 9 0 4 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SGV Freiberg 9 24 9 +15 19
2 Kickers Offenbach 10 20 13 +7 19
3 Stuttgarter Kickers 10 19 13 +6 20
4 Freiburg II 8 16 11 +5 13
5 SV Sandhausen 10 16 20 -4 13
6 Hessen Kassel 9 15 17 -2 10
7 VfR Mannheim 9 14 9 +5 14
8 VfR Aalen 9 14 10 +4 15
9 FSV Frankfurt 8 13 9 +4 12
10 TSV Steinbach 9 13 13 0 12
11 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 9 13 21 -8 5
12 FC 08 Homburg 9 12 12 0 14
13 Eintracht Frankfurt II 8 11 12 -1 10
14 FC Astoria Walldorf 9 11 17 -6 6
15 SSV Ulm 1846 9 11 19 -8 4
16 Eintracht Trier 9 10 7 +3 16
17 FSV Mainz 05 II 9 10 19 -9 9
18 Kaiserslautern II 9 7 18 -11 9
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest Predictions