Statistics / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest / TSV Steinbach vs FC 08 Homburg

TSV Steinbach vs FC 08 Homburg Statistics & Analysis

TSV Steinbach TSV Steinbach
Sep 26, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 64%
FC 08 Homburg FC 08 Homburg
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC 08 Homburg TSV Steinbach ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10084616

Closing Odds 2.18
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result TSV Steinbach win · TSV Steinbach 1–0 FC 08 Homburg
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices TSV Steinbach (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 4.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
TSV Steinbach (1X2) 34.7 33.0 +1.7
Draw (1X2) 29.7 24.9 +4.7
FC 08 Homburg (1X2) 35.6 42.0 -6.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.9%. The difference — about 4.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
TSV Steinbach (1X2) 2.77 2.77 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.67 3.67 0.0
FC 08 Homburg (1X2) 2.18 2.18 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - SudWest
  • Fixture: TSV Steinbach vs FC 08 Homburg
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): TSV Steinbach 1.29 — FC 08 Homburg 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.5% · Implied: 30.6% · Probability edge: +14.9 pts · Est. EV: +42.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - SudWest Regionalliga - SudWest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kickers Offenbach 8 6 1 1 19
2 SGV Freiberg 8 5 3 0 18
3 Stuttgarter Kickers 8 5 1 2 16
4 FC 08 Homburg 8 4 2 2 14
5 Freiburg II 8 3 4 1 13
6 Eintracht Trier 8 4 1 3 13
7 FSV Frankfurt 8 3 3 2 12
8 VfR Aalen 8 3 3 2 12
9 SV Sandhausen 9 3 3 3 12
10 VfR Mannheim 8 2 5 1 11
11 Hessen Kassel 8 3 1 4 10
12 Eintracht Frankfurt II 8 3 1 4 10
13 TSV Steinbach 8 2 3 3 9
14 Kaiserslautern II 8 2 2 4 8
15 FC Astoria Walldorf 9 1 3 5 6
16 FSV Mainz 05 II 8 2 0 6 6
17 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 8 1 2 5 5
18 SSV Ulm 1846 8 0 4 4 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SGV Freiberg 8 22 7 +15 18
2 Kickers Offenbach 8 19 8 +11 19
3 Freiburg II 8 16 11 +5 13
4 Stuttgarter Kickers 8 15 11 +4 16
5 SV Sandhausen 9 15 19 -4 12
6 Hessen Kassel 8 14 15 -1 10
7 FSV Frankfurt 8 13 9 +4 12
8 FC 08 Homburg 8 12 11 +1 14
9 TSV Steinbach 8 12 13 -1 9
10 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 8 12 16 -4 5
11 VfR Aalen 8 11 9 +2 12
12 Eintracht Frankfurt II 8 11 12 -1 10
13 FC Astoria Walldorf 9 11 17 -6 6
14 SSV Ulm 1846 8 11 18 -7 4
15 Eintracht Trier 8 9 7 +2 13
16 VfR Mannheim 8 9 8 +1 11
17 FSV Mainz 05 II 8 8 18 -10 6
18 Kaiserslautern II 8 6 17 -11 8
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest Predictions