Statistics / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest / Eintracht Trier vs Freiburg II

Eintracht Trier vs Freiburg II Statistics & Analysis

Eintracht Trier Eintracht Trier
Sep 08, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.25
0 1.35
xG Accuracy: 49%
Freiburg II Freiburg II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Freiburg II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 02, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6579933

Closing Odds 2.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Eintracht Trier 0–0 Freiburg II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Freiburg II (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 13.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Eintracht Trier (1X2) 32.9 39.5 -6.6
Draw (1X2) 29.6 26.7 +2.9
Freiburg II (1X2) 37.6 33.8 +3.8
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 61.7 -13.5
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 38.3 +13.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.3%. The difference — about 13.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Eintracht Trier (1X2) 2.32 2.32 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.43 3.43 0.0
Freiburg II (1X2) 2.71 2.71 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.51 1.51 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.43 2.43 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - SudWest
  • Fixture: Eintracht Trier vs Freiburg II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-08 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Eintracht Trier 1.25 — Freiburg II 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.4% · Probability edge: +13.5 pts · Est. EV: +26.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - SudWest Regionalliga - SudWest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kickers Offenbach 7 5 1 1 16
2 SGV Freiberg 7 4 3 0 15
3 Eintracht Trier 7 4 1 2 13
4 Stuttgarter Kickers 7 4 1 2 13
5 FC 08 Homburg 7 4 1 2 13
6 FSV Frankfurt 7 3 3 1 12
7 VfR Aalen 7 3 3 1 12
8 Freiburg II 7 2 4 1 10
9 TSV Steinbach 7 2 3 2 9
10 Hessen Kassel 7 3 0 4 9
11 VfR Mannheim 7 1 5 1 8
12 SV Sandhausen 7 2 2 3 8
13 Eintracht Frankfurt II 7 2 1 4 7
14 FC Astoria Walldorf 7 1 3 3 6
15 FSV Mainz 05 II 7 2 0 5 6
16 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 7 1 2 4 5
17 Kaiserslautern II 7 1 2 4 5
18 SSV Ulm 1846 7 0 3 4 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SGV Freiberg 7 19 5 +14 15
2 Kickers Offenbach 7 16 7 +9 16
3 Stuttgarter Kickers 7 14 11 +3 13
4 FSV Frankfurt 7 13 8 +5 12
5 Freiburg II 7 13 9 +4 10
6 TSV Steinbach 7 12 12 0 9
7 Hessen Kassel 7 12 13 -1 9
8 SV Sandhausen 7 11 16 -5 8
9 FC 08 Homburg 7 10 9 +1 13
10 Eintracht Frankfurt II 7 10 12 -2 7
11 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 7 10 13 -3 5
12 VfR Aalen 7 9 6 +3 12
13 SSV Ulm 1846 7 9 16 -7 3
14 Eintracht Trier 7 8 4 +4 13
15 FC Astoria Walldorf 7 8 12 -4 6
16 FSV Mainz 05 II 7 8 17 -9 6
17 VfR Mannheim 7 6 6 0 8
18 Kaiserslautern II 7 5 17 -12 5
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest Predictions