Statistics / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest / Freiburg II vs TSV Steinbach

Freiburg II vs TSV Steinbach Statistics & Analysis

Freiburg II Freiburg II
Sep 05, 2026 - 12:00
4 1.29
3 1.31
xG Accuracy: 30%
TSV Steinbach TSV Steinbach
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 TSV Steinbach Freiburg II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6133281

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Freiburg II win · Freiburg II 4–3 TSV Steinbach
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - SudWest
  • Fixture: Freiburg II vs TSV Steinbach
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Freiburg II 1.29 — TSV Steinbach 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - SudWest Regionalliga - SudWest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kickers Offenbach 8 6 1 1 19
2 SGV Freiberg 8 5 3 0 18
3 Stuttgarter Kickers 8 5 1 2 16
4 FC 08 Homburg 8 4 2 2 14
5 Freiburg II 8 3 4 1 13
6 Eintracht Trier 8 4 1 3 13
7 FSV Frankfurt 8 3 3 2 12
8 VfR Aalen 8 3 3 2 12
9 SV Sandhausen 9 3 3 3 12
10 VfR Mannheim 8 2 5 1 11
11 Hessen Kassel 8 3 1 4 10
12 Eintracht Frankfurt II 8 3 1 4 10
13 TSV Steinbach 8 2 3 3 9
14 Kaiserslautern II 8 2 2 4 8
15 FC Astoria Walldorf 9 1 3 5 6
16 FSV Mainz 05 II 8 2 0 6 6
17 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 8 1 2 5 5
18 SSV Ulm 1846 8 0 4 4 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SGV Freiberg 8 22 7 +15 18
2 Kickers Offenbach 8 19 8 +11 19
3 Freiburg II 8 16 11 +5 13
4 Stuttgarter Kickers 8 15 11 +4 16
5 SV Sandhausen 9 15 19 -4 12
6 Hessen Kassel 8 14 15 -1 10
7 FSV Frankfurt 8 13 9 +4 12
8 FC 08 Homburg 8 12 11 +1 14
9 TSV Steinbach 8 12 13 -1 9
10 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 8 12 16 -4 5
11 VfR Aalen 8 11 9 +2 12
12 Eintracht Frankfurt II 8 11 12 -1 10
13 FC Astoria Walldorf 9 11 17 -6 6
14 SSV Ulm 1846 8 11 18 -7 4
15 Eintracht Trier 8 9 7 +2 13
16 VfR Mannheim 8 9 8 +1 11
17 FSV Mainz 05 II 8 8 18 -10 6
18 Kaiserslautern II 8 6 17 -11 8
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest Predictions