Statistics / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest / VfR Aalen vs Freiburg II

VfR Aalen vs Freiburg II Statistics & Analysis

VfR Aalen VfR Aalen
Aug 09, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 85%
Freiburg II Freiburg II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 VfR Aalen Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2962485

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · VfR Aalen 1–1 Freiburg II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - SudWest
  • Fixture: VfR Aalen vs Freiburg II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): VfR Aalen 1.3 — Freiburg II 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - SudWest Regionalliga - SudWest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kickers Offenbach 7 5 1 1 16
2 SGV Freiberg 7 4 3 0 15
3 Eintracht Trier 7 4 1 2 13
4 Stuttgarter Kickers 7 4 1 2 13
5 FC 08 Homburg 7 4 1 2 13
6 FSV Frankfurt 7 3 3 1 12
7 VfR Aalen 7 3 3 1 12
8 Freiburg II 7 2 4 1 10
9 TSV Steinbach 7 2 3 2 9
10 Hessen Kassel 7 3 0 4 9
11 VfR Mannheim 7 1 5 1 8
12 SV Sandhausen 7 2 2 3 8
13 Eintracht Frankfurt II 7 2 1 4 7
14 FC Astoria Walldorf 7 1 3 3 6
15 FSV Mainz 05 II 7 2 0 5 6
16 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 7 1 2 4 5
17 Kaiserslautern II 7 1 2 4 5
18 SSV Ulm 1846 7 0 3 4 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SGV Freiberg 7 19 5 +14 15
2 Kickers Offenbach 7 16 7 +9 16
3 Stuttgarter Kickers 7 14 11 +3 13
4 FSV Frankfurt 7 13 8 +5 12
5 Freiburg II 7 13 9 +4 10
6 TSV Steinbach 7 12 12 0 9
7 Hessen Kassel 7 12 13 -1 9
8 SV Sandhausen 7 11 16 -5 8
9 FC 08 Homburg 7 10 9 +1 13
10 Eintracht Frankfurt II 7 10 12 -2 7
11 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 7 10 13 -3 5
12 VfR Aalen 7 9 6 +3 12
13 SSV Ulm 1846 7 9 16 -7 3
14 Eintracht Trier 7 8 4 +4 13
15 FC Astoria Walldorf 7 8 12 -4 6
16 FSV Mainz 05 II 7 8 17 -9 6
17 VfR Mannheim 7 6 6 0 8
18 Kaiserslautern II 7 5 17 -12 5
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany. Regionalliga - SudWest Predictions