Luckenwalde vs BFC Preussen Statistics & Analysis

Luckenwalde

Sep 15, 2026 - 17:00

0 1.26

2 1.34

xG Accuracy: 64%

BFC Preussen

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 BFC Preussen BFC Preussen ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 02:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7703520

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result BFC Preussen win · Luckenwalde 0–2 BFC Preussen

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Regionalliga - Nordost
Fixture: Luckenwalde vs BFC Preussen
Kickoff: 2026-09-15 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Luckenwalde 1.26 — BFC Preussen 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Regionalliga - Nordost — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	10	7	3	0	24
2	Chemnitzer FC	10	7	2	1	23
3	BFC Dynamo	11	6	3	2	21
4	Altglienicke	11	6	3	2	21
5	Erzgebirge Aue	10	6	3	1	21
6	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	11	6	1	4	19
7	Hallescher FC	10	5	4	1	19
8	Greifswalder FC	11	5	4	2	19
9	Lokomotive Leipzig	10	4	3	3	15
10	FSV Zwickau	10	4	2	4	14
11	Magdeburg II	11	4	1	6	13
12	BFC Preussen	10	2	4	4	10
13	SV Babelsberg 03	10	2	3	5	9
14	Hertha BSC II	10	2	2	6	8
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	10	1	3	6	6
16	RSV Eintracht	10	1	3	6	6
17	Tasmania Berlin	11	1	2	8	5
18	Luckenwalde	10	1	0	9	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	10	32	8	+24	24
2	Greifswalder FC	11	23	16	+7	19
3	Chemnitzer FC	10	21	5	+16	23
4	BFC Dynamo	11	20	12	+8	21
5	Altglienicke	11	20	14	+6	21
6	Lokomotive Leipzig	10	20	19	+1	15
7	Magdeburg II	11	20	23	-3	13
8	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	11	19	10	+9	19
9	Erzgebirge Aue	10	19	14	+5	21
10	Hallescher FC	10	15	7	+8	19
11	RSV Eintracht	10	13	25	-12	6
12	Tasmania Berlin	11	13	36	-23	5
13	BFC Preussen	10	12	14	-2	10
14	FSV Zwickau	10	12	16	-4	14
15	SV Babelsberg 03	10	11	15	-4	9
16	BSG Chemie Leipzig	10	10	16	-6	6
17	Hertha BSC II	10	8	20	-12	8
18	Luckenwalde	10	7	25	-18	3