Weiche Flensburg vs VfB Oldenburg Statistics & Analysis

Weiche Flensburg

Oct 03, 2026 - 12:00

3 1.25

2 1.35

xG Accuracy: 52%

VfB Oldenburg

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 VfB Oldenburg Weiche Flensburg ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11227123

Closing Odds 3.68

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Weiche Flensburg win · Weiche Flensburg 3–2 VfB Oldenburg

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 4.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Weiche Flensburg (1X2)	32.9	34.2	-1.3
Draw (1X2)	29.6	24.9	+4.7
VfB Oldenburg (1X2)	37.6	40.9	-3.3

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.9%. The difference — about 4.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Weiche Flensburg (1X2)	2.68	2.68
Draw (1X2)	3.68	3.68
VfB Oldenburg (1X2)	2.24	2.24

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Regionalliga - Nord
Fixture: Weiche Flensburg vs VfB Oldenburg
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Weiche Flensburg 1.25 — VfB Oldenburg 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 32.3% · Probability edge: +19.5 pts · Est. EV: +52.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Nord — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	12	9	1	2	28
2	SV Drochtersen/Assel	12	8	1	3	25
3	Schöningen	11	7	3	1	24
4	Phönix Lübeck	11	7	2	2	23
5	VfB Oldenburg	11	7	1	3	22
6	Hannover 96 II	11	6	3	2	21
7	Kickers Emden	12	5	3	4	18
8	Atlas Delmenhorst	11	4	3	4	15
9	Eimsbütteler TV	12	4	2	6	14
10	Eintracht Norderstedt	11	3	4	4	13
11	VfB Lübeck	12	2	6	4	12
12	Werder Bremen II	10	3	2	5	11
13	Todesfelde	12	3	2	7	11
14	St. Pauli II	11	3	1	7	10
15	Hamburger SV II	11	3	1	7	10
16	HSC Hannover	11	2	4	5	10
17	SSV Jeddeloh	12	3	1	8	10
18	Bremer SV	11	2	2	7	8

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	SV Drochtersen/Assel	12	40	18	+22	25
2	Weiche Flensburg	12	36	14	+22	28
3	VfB Oldenburg	11	33	17	+16	22
4	Kickers Emden	12	32	32	0	18
5	Phönix Lübeck	11	30	9	+21	23
6	Hannover 96 II	11	24	16	+8	21
7	Eintracht Norderstedt	11	23	27	-4	13
8	Eimsbütteler TV	12	21	33	-12	14
9	Todesfelde	12	21	38	-17	11
10	St. Pauli II	11	20	21	-1	10
11	Schöningen	11	19	15	+4	24
12	SSV Jeddeloh	12	18	32	-14	10
13	Atlas Delmenhorst	11	17	20	-3	15
14	Werder Bremen II	10	16	18	-2	11
15	Hamburger SV II	11	15	25	-10	10
16	HSC Hannover	11	15	26	-11	10
17	VfB Lübeck	12	14	21	-7	12
18	Bremer SV	11	9	21	-12	8