Statistics / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Nord / St. Pauli II vs Kickers Emden

St. Pauli II vs Kickers Emden Statistics & Analysis

St. Pauli II St. Pauli II
Sep 26, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.18
2 1.42
xG Accuracy: 62%
Kickers Emden Kickers Emden
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kickers Emden Kickers Emden ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10084348

Closing Odds 3.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Kickers Emden win · St. Pauli II 0–2 Kickers Emden
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 4.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
St. Pauli II (1X2) 29.6 32.6 -2.9
Draw (1X2) 29.4 24.6 +4.8
Kickers Emden (1X2) 41.0 42.8 -1.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.4% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.6%. The difference — about 4.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
St. Pauli II (1X2) 2.81 2.81 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.72 3.72 0.0
Kickers Emden (1X2) 2.14 2.14 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - Nord
  • Fixture: St. Pauli II vs Kickers Emden
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.0%
  • xG (showing): St. Pauli II 1.18 — Kickers Emden 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 25.8% · Probability edge: +26.1 pts · Est. EV: +105.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Regionalliga - Nord Regionalliga - Nord — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Schöningen 11 7 3 1 24
2 Phönix Lübeck 10 7 2 1 23
3 Weiche Flensburg 10 7 1 2 22
4 SV Drochtersen/Assel 11 7 1 3 22
5 VfB Oldenburg 10 7 1 2 22
6 Hannover 96 II 10 5 3 2 18
7 Kickers Emden 11 5 3 3 18
8 Atlas Delmenhorst 11 4 3 4 15
9 Eintracht Norderstedt 11 3 4 4 13
10 Eimsbütteler TV 11 4 1 6 13
11 Werder Bremen II 10 3 2 5 11
12 VfB Lübeck 11 2 5 4 11
13 St. Pauli II 11 3 1 7 10
14 SSV Jeddeloh 11 3 1 7 10
15 Hamburger SV II 11 3 1 7 10
16 HSC Hannover 11 2 4 5 10
17 Bremer SV 10 2 2 6 8
18 Todesfelde 11 2 2 7 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SV Drochtersen/Assel 11 33 16 +17 22
2 VfB Oldenburg 10 31 14 +17 22
3 Kickers Emden 11 31 30 +1 18
4 Weiche Flensburg 10 30 12 +18 22
5 Phönix Lübeck 10 28 6 +22 23
6 Eintracht Norderstedt 11 23 27 -4 13
7 Hannover 96 II 10 21 14 +7 18
8 Eimsbütteler TV 11 21 33 -12 13
9 St. Pauli II 11 20 21 -1 10
10 Schöningen 11 19 15 +4 24
11 Todesfelde 11 19 37 -18 8
12 Atlas Delmenhorst 11 17 20 -3 15
13 Werder Bremen II 10 16 18 -2 11
14 SSV Jeddeloh 11 16 25 -9 10
15 Hamburger SV II 11 15 25 -10 10
16 HSC Hannover 11 15 26 -11 10
17 VfB Lübeck 11 14 21 -7 11
18 Bremer SV 10 9 18 -9 8
Regionalliga - Nord Germany. Regionalliga - Nord Predictions