Statistics / Football / Germany. Regionalliga - Nord / Hamburger SV II vs St. Pauli II

Hamburger SV II vs St. Pauli II Statistics & Analysis

Hamburger SV II Hamburger SV II
Sep 16, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.41
3 1.19
xG Accuracy: 41%
St. Pauli II St. Pauli II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hamburger SV II St. Pauli II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 01:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7845463

Closing Odds 2.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result St. Pauli II win · Hamburger SV II 0–3 St. Pauli II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 18.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Hamburger SV II (1X2) 40.5 40.2 +0.3
Draw (1X2) 29.4 25.5 +3.9
St. Pauli II (1X2) 30.1 34.3 -4.2
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 66.5 -18.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 33.5 +18.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 33.5%. The difference — about 18.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Hamburger SV II (1X2) 2.28 2.28 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.59 3.59 0.0
St. Pauli II (1X2) 2.67 2.67 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.4 1.4 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.78 2.78 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Regionalliga - Nord
  • Fixture: Hamburger SV II vs St. Pauli II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Hamburger SV II 1.41 — St. Pauli II 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.8% · Implied: 32.0% · Probability edge: +13.8 pts · Est. EV: +35.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Regionalliga - Nord Regionalliga - Nord — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Schöningen 11 7 3 1 24
2 Phönix Lübeck 10 7 2 1 23
3 Weiche Flensburg 10 7 1 2 22
4 SV Drochtersen/Assel 11 7 1 3 22
5 VfB Oldenburg 10 7 1 2 22
6 Hannover 96 II 10 5 3 2 18
7 Kickers Emden 11 5 3 3 18
8 Atlas Delmenhorst 11 4 3 4 15
9 Eintracht Norderstedt 11 3 4 4 13
10 Eimsbütteler TV 11 4 1 6 13
11 Werder Bremen II 10 3 2 5 11
12 VfB Lübeck 11 2 5 4 11
13 St. Pauli II 11 3 1 7 10
14 SSV Jeddeloh 11 3 1 7 10
15 Hamburger SV II 11 3 1 7 10
16 HSC Hannover 11 2 4 5 10
17 Bremer SV 10 2 2 6 8
18 Todesfelde 11 2 2 7 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SV Drochtersen/Assel 11 33 16 +17 22
2 VfB Oldenburg 10 31 14 +17 22
3 Kickers Emden 11 31 30 +1 18
4 Weiche Flensburg 10 30 12 +18 22
5 Phönix Lübeck 10 28 6 +22 23
6 Eintracht Norderstedt 11 23 27 -4 13
7 Hannover 96 II 10 21 14 +7 18
8 Eimsbütteler TV 11 21 33 -12 13
9 St. Pauli II 11 20 21 -1 10
10 Schöningen 11 19 15 +4 24
11 Todesfelde 11 19 37 -18 8
12 Atlas Delmenhorst 11 17 20 -3 15
13 Werder Bremen II 10 16 18 -2 11
14 SSV Jeddeloh 11 16 25 -9 10
15 Hamburger SV II 11 15 25 -10 10
16 HSC Hannover 11 15 26 -11 10
17 VfB Lübeck 11 14 21 -7 11
18 Bremer SV 10 9 18 -9 8
Regionalliga - Nord Germany. Regionalliga - Nord Predictions